The market situation suddenly became ghostly at the end of the year. As for the price of polyester raw materials, some factories were shouting for an increase, and at the same time, some factories were offering discounts. At this time in previous years, in order to avoid the periodic demand caused by the holidays in the textile market Missing, leading to high inventory, polyester factory year-end sales are more common, this year’s year-end market is very strange. The editor will share some of his own views following the rise and fall.
Let’s talk about those who offer preferential prices first. These manufacturers tend to be relatively small in scale, and their ability to withstand high inventories during the holidays is relatively weak. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the textile market has entered the holiday stage. , the startup rate of each cluster has dropped to freezing point. Due to power outages and gas outages at the end of the year, the startup rate is infinitely close to 0%. Therefore, in order to be able to destock before the end of the year, we can no longer raise prices willfully.
What deserves more attention now is the price increase before this year. Let me first draw a conclusion. There are two factors. On the one hand, the most critical factor for this increase is that the support from the cost side is relatively strong; on the other hand, the current inventory Pressure still exists, but there are still promising expectations for next year’s market conditions.
Cost recovery
In 2022, although polyester filament prices have been adjusted, they basically increased at the beginning of the month and were promoted at the end of the month. The overall price did not change much. The trend throughout the year showed an “inverted V” trend. The highest point of the year was in June, and prices rose sharply during this period. Most of the support comes from the cost end. However, the cost end support is quite short-lived and terminal demand gradually declines. Therefore, when the cost end support weakens, polyester filament also enters a downward stage.
With the sudden rebound of crude oil last week, the overall rise in raw materials led to the ethylene glycol week being supported by the unexpected reduction in supply, and the price began to strengthen all the way. After that, PTA continued to strengthen in crude oil, and the price of polyester yarn was supported. , but since the market has ended, the overall increase is limited, around 50 yuan/ton. However, since the market has ended, there is little stimulation for downstream weaving companies and it cannot bring about a “buying increase” effect. Production and sales are still tepid.
The market situation next year is promising
The current market conditions are like a spring. The market conditions that have been suppressed for three years will finally be released. From the perspective of domestic demand and external demand:
In terms of domestic demand, the impact of the epidemic on the market will slow down in 2023. Although it may lead to labor shortages, domestic demand is expected to recover slowly due to the recovery of transportation and logistics, especially in the second half of the year when recovery is expected to be strong and usher in the near future. 3 year peak.
In terms of external demand, export demand has declined marginally, but is expected to gradually stabilize in the second half of the year. Overall demand is expected to recover weakly and be stronger in the second half of the year than in the first half. As the domestic epidemic situation is lifted, the competitiveness of Southeast Asia and other regions will decline; at the end of 2022, many domestic companies chartered flights overseas to grab orders, which received good response. Overseas demand in 2022 may fall back compared to 2021, due to foreign demand for We remain cautious about the domestic epidemic situation, but now that we are relaxed, our ordering mentality will be adjusted.
Generally speaking, although the stocking wave before this year is still not as enthusiastic as in previous years, with the recovery of demand, the weaving start-up rate is expected to increase significantly after the year. And since most weaving companies still need to stock up before this year, there may be a wave of stocking by then. Stocking peak period, it is expected that polyester filament will continue to rise after the year.
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