After the beginning of the new year, with strong confidence in China’s economy in the new year, the raw material market has been booming. But what is embarrassing is that the contrast between strong expectations and weak reality is very obvious. The price of crude oil has fallen again, with a cumulative decline of nearly 8% in a week. The rise in the price of raw materials represented by polyester yarn did not last long. After several days of high sideways trading, polyester yarn prices from some polyester factories even began to fall.
Worst post-holiday production and sales in three years
Only in terms of polyester production and sales, the sales volume of polyester yarn after the beginning of the new year is really not as good as expected, 1month28 In the period from 2month2, the average production and sales of the polyester market were only 2 span>22%.
The data that the editor dug out from the pile of old papers, starting from 2014, except for the market in the recovery period after a wave of madness2019In 2020, when the epidemic broke out and the whole country was silent, the average production and sales in the first cycle after the beginning of this year were the lowest. Even in 2022 when the market is recognized to be sluggish, the data for the first cycle after the year is still 31%, and In 2021, this data is as high as 123%.
There is inertia in the market. Textile people often rely on the market conditions in the second half of the previous year to judge the market situation in the new year. Therefore, the production and sales data in the first cycle after the year are in most cases It is the market’s summary of the previous year’s market conditions. From the market conditions in 2022, textile people have judged that 2023 may not be easy either, and they wish they could break it into pieces with just a penny. The two-petal flower is naturally unwilling to purchase raw materials in large quantities when the situation is still unclear.
The psychology of textile people
It can also be clearly seen from the start-up data of weaving enterprises that the statutory Spring Festival holiday has passed for a week, and the average operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has still only rebounded to less than 3%. Weaving companies are not very willing to resume work.
When surveying cloth bosses in the market, we can also feel the obvious phenomenon of two-level differentiation. Companies with orders are eager to continue working without holidays during the New Year, while companies without orders are willing to start work as late as possible, and recruitment is difficult. Not active, let alone buying ingredients.
This problem is also related to the time of the Chinese New Year, because 2022 The Chinese New Year is early, and the traditional spring and summer orders have not yet been completely released. In addition, part of the demand was overdrafted before the New Year. This makes textile companies less anxious to start work.
In the short term, if weaving companies do not start operations on a large scale, they will not purchase large quantities of raw materials, and the prices of raw materials will not rise. If they want to achieve the ideal situation of “volume and price rise” that upstream polyester factories want, It is difficult without the cooperation of a large number of orders in the market. According to the experience of previous years, a large number of orders may arrive at the end of February.
However, before that, it is unlikely that polyester yarn will fall sharply. After all, the overall inventory situation of polyester factories is good at this stage, and there is no need to reduce prices to remove inventory.
Better than worse2023
From a macroeconomic perspective, the caution of textile people is also very reasonable.
After entering 2023, the international economic environment has not improved, but has worsened. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not only not eased, but has become more and more intense. Although the Federal Reserve has slowed down its interest rate hikes, interest rates are still increasing, and the current interest rates have been increased to 4.5-4.75%, draining the cash flow of real enterprises;2022 Many major economies are relying on “resting on their laurels”, but after all, it is not like As the United States can print its own capital, it has fewer and fewer chips to use, and is in danger of collapse at any time…
In 2023, compared with other countries, China may be highlighted as outstanding because of its relatively stable internal and external environment and strong strength. Although the orders of textile enterprises may be less, they will be severely impacted. The possibility is not high; but compared with the past, due to the deterioration of the foreign economic situation, domestic textiles are extremely dependent on foreign trade, so in terms of the intuitive feelings of textile people, they will feel uncomfortable.
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