In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become one of the biggest factors influencing the global political and economic situation. Judging from the current situation, this impact will continue in the short term.
Recently, Russia has done two things that have a huge impact on textile people.
Crude oil production restrictions
In response to the crude oil price limit,Russia announced on October that crude oil prices will be reduced from March Daily production has been cut by 500,000 barrels, which is about 5% of Russia’s current average daily crude oil production.
Spurred by this news, international oil prices rose sharply on October, with an increase of more than2%, 13On the 13th, crude oil continued its upward trend, with a cumulative increase of more than 8% in a week.
Use RMB as the only foreign exchange reserve
The Russian Ministry of Finance recently made another major decision, announcing that all energy transactions in Russia will only accept gold, renminbi and rubles, and that within this year, the share of the euro in the national wealth fund will be emptied, and only gold and rubles will be retained. and RMB, no other foreign currencies will be accepted.
These two events have a huge impact, both in the short term and in the long term, and can be “dream-linked” with other recent events.
Recently, Lotte Chemical announced thatwill completely withdraw from the PTA business,In contrast, there is the rapid growth of domestic PTA production capacity.
On the one hand, after Chinese companies aggressively entered PTA, this industry is really too complicated.
2022,2023 are both years when China’sPTA production capacity will grow rapidly. Around the same time as Lotte exited the PTA business, news emerged about the start-up of the Tongkun polyester integrated unit. Overseas giants have shrunk while domestic leaders have expanded. The contrast is very obvious.
On the other hand, this is also inseparable from the rising crude oil prices.
For general commodities, if the price is high, merchants will increase production and eventually lower the price. But crude oil is different. There are only a few oil-producing countries. Oil is still hard currency. If the price is high, oil-producing countries will not increase production, but will reduce production. Goldman Sachs previously predicted that 23 crude oil will exceed the highest level of 100 US dollars. In the past, the United States would act as the big brother to suppress oil prices. Now the United States We are already an oil-producing country, so it would be nice not to add fuel to the fire. Russia’s recent production cuts have added fuel to the fire.
After the beginning of the new year, the slow recovery of looms is also similar. Although the concentration is not that high, the production capacity is indeed excess. The first priority at this time is naturally not to expand production, but to find good sales first, otherwise the market The price of the cloth has collapsed. Considering the recent reduction in the number of looms in the Yangtze River Delta, the final impact is estimated to be relatively limited, because the current growth rate of loom production capacity in other parts of China is much faster than the reduction rate, and there is no shortage of these production capacities.
The impact of using the RMB as Russia’s only foreign exchange reserve is actually even greater.
Unlike crude oil, the consequences may not be apparent as quickly. However, with the current global political and economic situation, for textile workers, being able to do business safely and with less trouble is more important than anything else. In the past few decades, doing business safely may have been taken for granted, but now that the world is in turmoil, stability has become elusive for many countries.
The current situation is that the Chinese want to do business well, but the Americans think that allowing the Chinese to do business safely will challenge the hegemony of the United States, so they target them everywhere. From this perspective, as the influence of the RMB continues to expand, more and more countries have increased trust in the RMB, and the risk reduction effect on textile people when doing business is immeasurable.�’s.
Sometimes things are so magical. They influence each other during the continuous development process, produce wonderful chemical reactions, and finally usher in a future full of variables. Looking at it now, although the future will be bumpy, it is still full of hope.
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