Last week,European and American banking industries continued to be turbulent,The editor was very full, and this is also triggered investors’ panic about potential risks to the broader global financial system. Affected by this, international oil prices fell sharply. New York oil prices fell 12.96%, the largest weekly drop in the past year, and Brent oil prices fell 11.85%.
Crude oil has plummeted. According to the general situation, PTAas a “grasshopper on a rope”, naturally cannot escape the fate of falling, butPTA It means, if I don’t, I will go up!
On March 20, PTA futures were close to the daily limit, and finallyPTA span>15The closing price was 248 points higher than the previous trading day, closing at 5858 points, the increase is 4.42%.
What causes this?
Bottom out
Last week, PTAAlthough it was “drifted” by crude oil for a few days, it also had a negative impact,PTAThe recent fundamentals have been relatively strong. Once the panic in the market passes and the logic of value returns, it will be easier for PTA to bottom out and rebound than other products.
PXMaintenance
As a raw material for PTAPX has entered the maintenance season, Spanish> >PTAGreat support.
Weaving enterprise replenishment
Last Friday, weaving companies replenished goods at low prices, and the average production and sales of polyester filament in polyester factories reached 279.2%, and was The highest daily production and sales level of polyester filament in 2023. Weaving companies have been in low inventory of raw materials since the beginning of this year. The plunge in crude oil has caused polyester yarns to fall, so they are able to replenish supplies at low prices.
Polyester price fluctuations
After the price of PTA skyrocketed, the price of polyester filament will inevitably rise. March March 20 The prices of polyester yarns in many polyester factories have generally risen, and some factories have even There was a second rise.
Can this price increase succeed?
This year, since the Chinese New Year holiday, the price of polyester filament has increased several times. However, because weaving companies did not buy it, the increase ultimately failed to continue. Even after careful calculation in the end, the price not only did not increase. , but it fell a little. What are the similarities and differences between this current wave of price increases and the previous ones?
Differences
1. The time is different. The previous price increase was based on expectations, and the speculation was on this year’s gold, three and silver prices, but now the time has come3 In March, the weaving operating rate also remained at a high level, and the demand for polyester yarn was real.
2.The fundamentals are different. In the past, many price increases were more out of thin air, but this time it is indeed that the PX device is going to be overhauled on a large scale, and PTA and polyester are different. PX is not yet fully localized., foreign companies have become very mature in this strategy of “not opening for three years, but staying open for three years”.
Same points
Lack of confidence. The biggest similarity is also very clear, that is, the market’s lack of confidence. For the current textile market, confidence is more important than anything else, but it is lacking more than anything else. Although it has been 3 months, the number of orders on the market is still relatively average, especially for foreign trade. The original customers who had demand have now become those who have no demand, and now there are many customers who have demand. You may not be able to get U.S. dollars for purchases, which will reflect overcapacity.
Things are clearer now. The benefits are real, but downstream confidence is indeed lacking.
Even if the price of polyester yarn starts to rise, not many weaving companies will buy it in a short time. However, for polyester factories, the explosion of production and sales last Friday removed a lot of inventory, giving them the confidence to not care about the market reaction in a short period of time. They can follow the PTA” If you continue to do so for a period of time, there is a certain possibility that the polyester filament will be “priced but not marketable” in the end.
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