From May 6 to May 10, crude oil rose for three consecutive days. However, in these days, not only the performance of polyester filament did not reflect the support brought by the cost end, but also upstream raw materials such as PTA. Showing fatigue.
From the current logic, as the demand market has entered the traditional off-season, the purchase demand for raw materials has dropped significantly. On May 6, due to the rise in crude oil, the price of polyester raw materials such as PTA increased, which led to the “buying” of weaving companies. “Up” mentality, although that day was not a purchasing node for weaving companies, the production and sales still reached 183.4%.
After buying this yarn, many people felt that they were safe, but the price of polyester yarn did not rise as expected. Instead, it took a steady pace. However, steady polyester yarn is the key to weaving enterprises in the off-season. Best case scenario.
Gray cloth prices are hard to rise
In previous peak seasons, the price of gray fabrics would rise somewhat, but since the peak season this year, the price of gray fabrics has not fluctuated much, and fluctuations in raw materials have not been able to boost the price of gray fabrics:
On the one hand, industry peers are severely involved, and the inventory of gray fabrics on the market is too large. Everyone is shopping for prices. One boss said: “There are no hot-selling products. The only thing is that whose price is low will sell better.” On the market The overall inventory of gray fabrics is estimated to be enough to produce clothes for one year.
On the other hand, raw material prices have also remained relatively stable, with overall fluctuations within plus or minus 100. Since raw materials are purchased in advance, prices during fluctuations will naturally have little impact. The overall price of raw materials does not fluctuate much, but it does not prevent customers from lowering prices when they see raw material prices falling. Therefore, the stable polyester price is the best situation for weaving companies.
But the stable situation should not last long.
In terms of inventory, the biggest support for the relatively stable price of polyester yarn is that it has just been shipped out of the warehouse. After production and sales have increased, there is no rush to leave the warehouse. According to the data monitoring of China Silk City Network, the current overall inventory of the polyester market Concentrated on 19-30 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 21-30 days, FDY inventory is around 19-28 days, and DTY inventory is around 17-29 days. But the so-called support only goes so far.
In terms of crude oil, the recent concerns about the economic recession in Europe and the United States and the European Central Bank’s interest rate hikes have caused international oil prices to show a weak trend. The impact of recent PX maintenance has also gradually weakened. The industry load has increased and supply has gradually eased, dragging down PTA prices. Ester cost support was dragged down. The recent three-day rise in crude oil has not wiped out the weakness of the polyester industry chain.
In terms of demand, the textile market has entered the off-season. Although there may be a wave of market prices in “Red May”, it is almost mid-May and the market still has not improved much. We can only look forward to June. According to market rules, June There should be a batch of foreign trade orders that can be placed. However, in view of the current foreign trade market, textile workers do not have high expectations for the market and hold a more cautious attitude. Therefore, production enthusiasm is low. There may be some in the second half of May. Enterprises have reduced production, so polyester purchasing intensity may decline.
To sum up, we can get the simplest answer. Polyester yarn will continue to fall, and it will be useless for anyone to come. Demand is the boss that dominates everything. No matter how high the price tag is, it is useless if no one buys it. Therefore, recently weaving companies have to When purchasing raw materials, we should mainly purchase them on demand. In the end, the polyester factory will not be able to sell the silk, so we will still have to go to the bosses to buy the silk through promotions.
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