The price of PX is now like a ball on a slope. It keeps falling and cannot stop. As of May 16, the price has dropped to US$964/ton. The last time the price of PX was in three digits was at the beginning of the year. Since then, it has dropped due to Tightening supply causes price rises.
PTA is the cost end with the largest proportion of polyester yarn, and PX is the upstream of PTA. It can be said that its every move is also related to the price fluctuation of polyester yarn.
Polyester prices are relatively strong
Judging from the polyester price curve, in fact, overall since the beginning of the year, the price of polyester has basically maintained a straight line and is very stable. On a few days, the price has fluctuated due to cost-end support or the influence of marketing models. , but the overall trend of polyester prices has not changed much. For weaving companies, the current raw material prices are a good thing, and they will not let their gray fabric prices fall into a passive situation.
Now that it has entered the off-season, it can be seen that the price of polyester filament has slowly started to decline recently. Now the only thing that can drive the increase in polyester yarn is crude oil. When crude oil rises, PTA may rise a little, driving up the price of polyester yarn, but weaving companies may not I will buy it. After all, the desire for production is relatively low now. If you just need to purchase, you can take the initiative to avoid the rising polyester market and wait for the price to come down in two days.
Polyester profit repair
Because of this, polyester profits have been repaired to a great extent. From the polyester profit chart, we can see that from the beginning of this year to mid-March, polyester profits have been hovering near the profit and loss line, and then they fell to the bottom, with losses ranging from This is also due to the fact that the market prices of gold, silver and silver are lower than expected, and the weaving end is not very enthusiastic about purchasing polyester yarn. However, the high cost-end price caused by the tightening of supply at the PX end makes it difficult to repair polyester yarn profits.
However, with the recovery of PX supply, PX prices began to decline continuously. They have fallen for 5 consecutive working days since May 10. At the same time, polyester profits and prices were relatively strong, and polyester profits were restored. , and is now rising steadily. Although the current profit of polyester yarn is not very high, it has turned a profit. The profits of FDY, POY, and DTY in 150D specifications are 236 yuan/ton, 186 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton.
Increased fall space
It can be seen from the experience of previous years that the price of polyester yarn is generally not too high during the period from May to August. By extending the time line, we can look at this picture. This is the price trend chart of 150D FDY in recent years. It can be seen that except for 2020, polyester prices have been weak during the period from May to August. This is mainly because this period is in the traditional off-season of the textile industry, and demand is insufficient, so polyester prices naturally cannot rise.
This is from an experience point of view, but from a practical point of view, the current cost-side support can be said to be in tatters, and the demand side is even more insufficient. From these two aspects, with the current profits restored, promotional outbound sales The possibility is quite high. As the saying goes, there is nothing that cannot be sold, only the price is too high. Just like when Dongfeng Citroën C6 Dragon was priced at 200,000, I pointed at it, but it smelled really good at 120,000!
Now polyester factories are in a trial stage, so the recent market can see that the prices of different factories have risen and fallen, but overall they are still running weakly, and there is still plenty of profit margin for polyester filaments. , in the short term, as the downstream enters the traditional off-season and demand gradually becomes insufficient, polyester prices are expected to be promoted.
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