New trade rules quietly adjusted: How China will take action

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New trade rules are quietly adjusted: How China will take action

According to new news from the customs, my country’s total foreign trade value increased by 7.1% year-on-year in August. Among them, exports showed an upward trend and imports showed a downward trend. Perhaps, this single-month data cannot explain anything, but it is different when looking at continuous data. It just so happens that Dr. Yan Min of the National Information Center has a research report, which gives a down-to-earth view, that is, how can China’s foreign trade return to normal from the previous high growth? How to deal with the quietly adjusted new trade rules? Have new ideas.

　——Editor

Against the background of the sluggish international economic and trade situation and the slowdown of the domestic economy, my country’s foreign trade has maintained a medium-speed growth since the beginning of the year. From January to July, the growth rate of import and export gradually slowed down, but the trade structure continued to improve.

In the second half of the year, the economy will show a slight improvement, but the lagging impact of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will appear. Domestic demand will continue to be stable and slow. my country’s foreign trade environment will not fundamentally change, and the growth rate of import and export is expected to continue to slow down. .

In the new round of trade regional negotiations, my country is in a disadvantageous position and should take the initiative to integrate with the new trends, new standards and new rules of international free trade development.

The next step should be to release the power and vitality of economic growth and foreign trade development through reform, focus on adjusting the trade structure, and strive to achieve the annual trade growth target.

Yan Min

The growth rate of foreign trade is declining and the trade structure needs to be optimized

1. The growth rate of import and export has gradually returned to normal from higher growth

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From January to July, my country’s import and export increased by 8.5% year-on-year, slightly better than the same period last year, of which exports increased by 9.5%, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points. Judging from the monthly trends, the growth rate of import and export in the first quarter was relatively high due to short-term special reasons, especially exports reaching 18.4%, which was more than ten percentage points higher than the same period last year and the full year; from April to July, relevant departments strengthened their Supervision in cross-border capital, re-export trade and other fields has significantly curbed false trade practices such as “one-day tours” and “low-export-high declarations” in Hong Kong. Export growth fell month by month, up 4.2%, which was in line with industrial exports. The growth rate of delivery value is gradually approaching.

In terms of imports, weak domestic demand led to slow import growth, with an increase of 7.3% from January to July. Among them, from April to July, with the decline in export growth, the import growth rate fell back to 6.4%, lower than 1 2 percentage points quarterly. As imports grew slower than exports, the trade surplus expanded 33.9% year-on-year to US$125.72 billion. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP turned from a negative contribution last year to a positive contribution rate of 0.9%, driving GDP up by 0.1 percentage point.

2. Imports and exports to major trading partners are divergent

Since the beginning of the year, due to factors such as the divergence of growth among major economies and disputes over the Diaoyu Islands incident, my country’s relations with the United States, Europe, Japan and major emerging economies have Market trade growth has also become divergent. From January to July, China’s bilateral trade with the United States, ASEAN and other countries was stable, growing by 6.2% and 12.4% respectively; among emerging economies, trade with South Africa increased by 15.8%, and trade with South Korea increased by 8.6%, maintaining a good momentum.

Due to the severe economic situation in the EU, my country’s bilateral trade with Europe declined, down 1.8% from January to July; the Diaoyu Islands incident continued to escalate, and the Sino-Japanese trade growth rate fell to -8.8%; Russia and other resource-based countries were affected by international Negative factors such as falling commodity prices have led to poor economic growth, and Sino-Russian trade has shown zero growth. In addition, the growth rate of bilateral trade between the mainland and Hong Kong has gradually slowed down from “super high”, with a cumulative growth of 34.1% from January to July.

Generally speaking, my country’s exports to traditional markets such as the United States, Europe, and Japan continue to slow down, and the degree of dependence is reduced; exports to emerging markets and developing countries such as ASEAN and Africa are accelerating. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, in the first half of the year, the proportion of my country’s exports to the three traditional markets of the United States, Europe, and Japan dropped to 37.6%, and the proportion to other export markets rose to 62.4%. The diversification of export markets has been strengthened.

3. Continuous improvement in products, trade methods, regional structure and other aspects

Under the joint influence of domestic and foreign economic and trade development environments, my country’s foreign trade growth has gradually entered a stage of medium-speed development. The pace of transformation and upgrading of development methods is accelerating, and the trade structure is being optimized and improved.

In terms of trade product structure, the proportion of exports of high value-added products has further increased, and the import of bulk resources and energy products has increased. From January to July, the proportion of my country’s exports of mechanical and electrical products was basically the same as that of the previous year, and the proportion of exports of high-tech products increased by 1.6 percentage points; the import volume of resource-based products and raw material products such as iron ore and steel billets grew rapidly, and the import volume of high-tech products and consumer goods The proportion of imports increased.

In terms of trade structure, due to the increase in labor costs in my country, some labor-intensive processing trade has gradually been transferred to neighboring countries such as Vietnam and Laos. In recent years, general trade, which has made a greater contribution to domestic economic growth and value creation, has increased. The speed continues to be faster than that of processing trade. From January to July, my country’s general trade grew by 11.9%, higher than the average growth rate, while processing trade declined.The overall adjustment is relatively stable and prices are relatively moderate.

In the second half of the year, new contradictions and problems existing in the economic operation will increase the downward pressure on the economy, while infrastructure investment and corporate inventory replenishment will promote economic growth in the second half of the year. Overall, my country’s investment and consumer demand will grow moderately, and the macro-economy will be in a medium-speed and steady growth trend, which is conducive to the steady growth of my country’s foreign trade imports.

5. The lagging impact of the sharp appreciation of the RMB is gradually emerging

The RMB exchange rate is an important factor affecting the trend of import and export. According to data from the Bank for International Settlements, the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB in July was 117.24, up nearly 1 percentage point from June, rising for ten consecutive months and hitting record highs. The real effective exchange rate of my country’s RMB has risen sharply, but at the same time, Japan and most emerging market countries are choosing a currency devaluation strategy to resist the adverse effects of declining price competitiveness of export commodities.

As the costs of domestic labor, capital, and environmental factors continue to rise and the international competitiveness of labor-intensive products weakens, the continued strength of the exchange rate will further compress the profit margins of enterprise product exports. Although the current outflow of international short-term capital will alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation to a certain extent, considering that there is a certain time lag in the impact of exchange rate appreciation on trade, it is expected that this impact will gradually appear in the second half of the year and become an important factor restricting export growth. .

6. Increase policy support to promote stable growth of imports and exports

Regardless of the spring Canton Fair transaction data or the current export leading index, the future export situation is not optimistic. In response to this situation, the relevant departments have clearly stated that they will increase the intensity of foreign trade stabilization policies and strive to “provide enterprises with policies that are conducive to stabilizing growth and adjusting structures; that are conducive to stabilizing exports and expanding imports; that are conducive to reducing Export costs, but also a trade environment that is conducive to opening up new markets and giving full play to the comprehensive advantages of technology, brand, quality and service.” (Author’s unit: Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center)

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