Since the beginning of this year, we have been talking about topics such as this year’s textile market “the peak season is not strong, the off-season is earlier”, and I always feel that it is just a matter of getting through it. The “endless” peak season and the soft orders received.
But have you ever thought that the textile market may reach a peak this year, and the situation will only get worse in the future.
The polyester filament market is not satisfactory
The overall polyester filament market in 2019 is in a volatile and downward trend. In addition to the traditional During the “Golden Nine” peak season, the downstream weaving operating rate showed a downward trend, and the industry’s confidence in the market outlook was seriously lacking.
It is almost mid-October, but there is still no centralized stocking in the downstream… After the National Day holiday, the overall inventory of the industry has gradually increased, production and sales have not increased, and the pressure on inventory accumulation has been great. The current polyester filament factory inventory is 10-20 days old, and DTY inventory is relatively high.
With the end of foreign trade Christmas orders and Double Eleven and Double Twelve orders, weaving factories in the fourth quarter There may still be room for growth in stocks.
Overcapacity, more monks and less rice
Since the pressure on environmental protection increased in 2017, looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have started to A shift from the coast to the interior of the Midwest. It is understood that it was previously reported that nearly 120,000 water-jet looms have been moved out of Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, and the transferred water-jet loom production capacity has exceeded 200,000 units.
At the same time, in newly put into production areas, companies not only transferred old looms to suitable low-cost production bases, but also invested in new looms to expand production scale in the new bases. This current situation in the industry will result in a concentrated explosion of production capacity in the downstream textile market in the second half of this year, and there may be more in the future.
That is to say, the current operating situation of the textile industry is not only not good compared to previous years, but more importantly, it is heading towards a worse future.
The operating pressure of weaving and printing and dyeing factories is increasing day by day
Anyone in the textile industry, as long as they hear about When there is a factory, the first reaction is that this company must be “very profitable and very rich”. In fact, this was true in the past two years, but today is different from the past. Today’s weaving factories and printing and dyeing factories are producing “with tears in their eyes” every day.
According to the monitoring of sample weaving companies, the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze has been as high as more than 40 days. The lack of terminal trade orders has made weaving factories “miserable”. Fortunately, the price of raw materials has dropped, which has diluted part of the production costs, giving weaving factories the possibility of price reduction and promotion.
However, the raw materials are not “Bodhisattva-hearted”, nor can they always “provide help in times of need.”
Since August, PTA has been fluctuating at a low level. Currently, raw material prices are already at historically low levels, and it is only a matter of time before it enters the upward channel. At that time, for weaving factories with high inventories, suspending production may be the best choice.
As an “oligopoly” in the textile industry, the number of dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will only decrease but not increase due to the impact of environmental protection and other policies.
Logically speaking, it should be in an absolute position of “supply exceeds demand” and firmly grasp the right to say prices. However, this year’s situation has made the owners of major dyeing factories a little confused. We don’t dare to raise the price at all. Even if the dye exceeds the cost, we still have to quote the price carefully.
In any case, the September and National Day holidays have come to an end, and the “Silver Ten” is following up. Can orders in the downstream market improve further? Is the market taking advantage of the momentum? It’s all worth looking forward to!
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