In recent days, the development of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has affected people’s hearts, and its impact on the textile industry has also attracted much attention. At the end of 2019, the author made a prediction about the trend of the chemical fiber industry in 2020: Judging from the operation of the textile raw material industry in 2019, chemical fiber products are in a period of inventory growth. During this period, if the structural adjustment speed of the downstream textile sector is limited, then in 2020 The inventory of chemical fiber products will still show growth this year.
Under the epidemic, we need to re-evaluate the trend prediction of the textile industry. Taking the viscose staple fiber industry as an example, the epidemic has had a certain impact on the normal production work of the industry. Although we believe that it is too early to comment on the impact of the epidemic on the viscose staple fiber industry at this time, if we focus on 2020 In the first quarter, the forecast for the viscose staple fiber market can be summarized in the following five aspects:
1. Continue the recovery and slow price increase before the Spring Festival.
2 Some companies eventually limited production due to transportation of raw materials or inventory accumulation of their own products.
3 Since high-white viscose staple fiber is one of the main raw materials for spunlace non-woven fabrics for medical materials, it is difficult for companies that produce such products to experience a decrease in operating rates.
4 The market price of viscose staple fiber is difficult to fall below the low of 9,400 yuan/ton.
5 The large-scale mass production of high-white viscose staple fiber has forced viscose staple fiber companies to develop differentiated viscose staple fiber in terms of downstream demand.
The price of viscose staple fiber has reached a record low before the Spring Festival
2019 The price of the viscose staple fiber industry is in a downward cycle, with four consecutive declines during the year, and the low support point has repeatedly hit new lows. Until December 23, 2019, the industry average price fell to 9,400 yuan/ton, setting a new low in 10 years. Convergence, and with the concentration of downstream purchases, the price center rebounded slightly.
The rebound in prices did not arouse the downstream sentiment of chasing the increase. After the spinning enterprises concentrated on purchasing viscose staple fiber for 2 months, they began to gradually enter their own finishing work. Therefore, some of the high quotations for viscose staple fiber during the period did not continue to drive large-scale transactions. More short orders were still executed. Therefore, as of the eve of the Spring Festival, the actual price of viscose staple fiber was only lower than that in December 2019. The base price has increased by 100~400 yuan/ton.
With the Spring Festival approaching, China’s viscose staple fiber market has been closed. With logistics basically stagnant, there is no obvious offer in the market. After the holidays, some sporadic offers for viscose staple fiber were accepted at 10,500 yuan/ton, but there was no transaction.
Data source: Longzhong Information
The new price will increase after the holiday but the implementation needs to be tested
Although some viscose staple fiber companies have raised their offers to 10,500 yuan/ton for acceptance after the holiday, the specific Whether the implementation is implemented or not remains to be tested. On the one hand, the delay in the resumption of downstream work has led to a substantial backlog of viscose staple fiber factory inventories. On the other hand, it has caused a delay in the new round of purchasing nodes for viscose staple fiber. This phenomenon will lead to the beginning of March. The initial inventory of the viscose staple fiber industry is high, so if viscose staple fiber wants to implement high prices, it needs to match the decline in production. However, statistics show that poor logistics have limited the use of auxiliary materials for some viscose staple fiber companies. Although Nissan’s production has declined, the intensity has been relatively slight. As of February 10, the overall daily output of the viscose staple fiber industry was 9,400 tons, with an operating rate of 67%. The operating rate dropped by 11 percentage points from January 23.
This decline in production cannot alleviate the growing inventory of viscose staple fiber. Currently, there are The inventory capacity of enterprises has been tested. If the resumption of work of downstream spinning enterprises is delayed after February 10, it will force the viscose staple fiber operating rate to decline significantly. Therefore, the impact of downstream resumption of work will be extremely critical, which also determines whether the production of viscose staple fiber factories will shift from slowing down to large-scale production restrictions or even suspension of production.
The downstream resumption of work may not be optimistic
Affected by the epidemic, textile companies in various places The post-holiday resumption date of yarn companies is generally postponed by 3 to 10 days compared with previous years, and more of them are to be notified later. Some companies in Xiaoshan and Keqiao, Zhejiang have successively issued notices to postpone the start-up time to February 17 or even February. On the 20th; some medium and large rayon yarns in Xinjiang continued to be produced, and some enterprises that were shut down during the Spring Festival did not yet have a clear start-up time; some large enterprises in Changle, Fujian, started up on February 1, but basically local employees were the first to resume work, and migrant workers were still postponed Work has resumed, so the startup rate is basically less than 40%. In order to ensure a smooth start-up, local companies that have not yet started have already given certain daily salary compensation to returning employees in advance; spinning companies in Gaomi, Shandong, Peixian, Jiangsu, Wujiang, Jiangsu, Xinxiang, Henan and other places are still We are waiting to resume work on February 10, but the actual delay may be larger. In addition, there is currently a certain pressure on companies to isolate and arrange some employees who return to the factory early. (See Table 1 for details)
Table 1 Start-up status of spinning production areas
Not only that, major textile markets have also successively announced delays in opening, see Table 2 for details.
Table 2 The opening status of major textile markets
The five major operating paths of the viscose staple fiber market in the future
To sum up, due to the seasonal industry of viscose staple fiber, During the Spring Festival, the load rate was basically maintained at 78%; after the Spring Festival, due to the poor transportation in some areas due to the epidemic, there was some transportation pressure on its raw and auxiliary materials. In early February, the viscose staple fiber industry experienced a 67% load rate. The load rate phenomenon. Downstream rayon yarn companies and major textile markets have experienced serious startup lag due to the epidemic. Therefore, from the first quarter, the situation faced by the viscose staple fiber market is:
1) Continue the recovery and slow price increase before the Spring Festival.
2) Some companies eventually limited production due to the transportation of raw materials and the accumulation of inventory of their own products. .
3) Because high-white viscose staple fiber is one of the main raw materials of spunlace non-woven fabrics, and spunlace non-woven fabrics are disposable epidemic prevention supplies such as surgical gowns and masks. It is an important material, so it is difficult for high-white viscose staple fiber manufacturers to experience a decline in operating rates. At the same time, when the proportion of high-white viscose staple fiber production in the industry increases, it will alleviate the current oversupply of ordinary viscose staple fiber. Pressure, this point needs to be paid attention to by the purchasing personnel of downstream yarn mills.
4) Since the viscose staple fiber industry is at a historically low price before the Spring Festival, On the other hand, the industry’s losses were once between 1,500 and 1,800 yuan/ton, and the losses have been as long as 15 months. Such long-term losses and large losses are abnormal in any industry. Therefore, regardless of whether there is an epidemic or not, or when the epidemic delays the start of downstream operations, it is difficult for the market price of viscose staple fiber to fall below the low of 9,400 yuan/ton. If the change occurs again in the first quarter or falls below , a large-scale viscose staple fiber factory may limit or suspend production, which is something that all industry practitioners do not want to see; on the contrary, because viscose staple fiber itself is already on the road to restorative growth, the epidemic situation The emergence of this may slow down or accelerate the progress of this restorative rise. For this point, we can only wait and see.
5) In view of the outbreak of the epidemic, the products in the viscose staple fiber industry are gradually diversifying, and the demand for disposable medical protective equipment during the epidemic has also increased. It reflects my country’s status as a major textile country, but the specific variety structure of my country’s textiles still needs to be continuously adjusted, and the epidemic may lead to large-scale mass production of high-white viscose staple fiber, thus forcing the downstream demand for viscose staple fiber. The company conducts research and development of differentiated viscose staple fiber and achieves mass production, further accelerating the supply-side structural reform of my country’s viscose staple fiber industry.
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