In the context of the continued negative impact of overseas public health incidents and the stalemate in the “price war” of crude oil, polyester chips have subsequently “dived” sharply.
There is news that Saudi Arabia will support cooperation among oil-producing countries to stabilize oil prices. PTA and ethylene glycol rose in the market. As of 5 p.m. that day, polyester chips were produced and sold in late trading, with individual production and sales reaching 600%-1000%. , the inventory release is better. After the panic “buying the bottom”, the market will face a longer “ice age”.
As shown in the figure, based on the market price of 4,250 yuan/ton, the cash flow of semi-gloss polyester chips has been as low as 100 yuan/ton. tons, a new low in the past two months. Although there is no substantive agreement, the release of good news about crude oil has surged downstream enthusiasm for stockpiling. So is the current market price “bottom”?
The prediction of the market still needs to return to the fundamentals. From the perspective of the polyester chain, cash flow is currently unevenly distributed, PX and PTA processing fees are abundant, and manufacturers have no expectations of reducing their burden. That is to say, high inventory and high load mode will still be maintained in the short and medium term. As the direct downstream of polyester chips – Chip spinning factories have lost a large number of foreign trade orders and have switched to the domestic market. The competition for orders is fierce and profits continue to shrink. Against the background of imbalance between supply and demand, the polyester chip market is hard to say bottomed out.
For polyester companies, inventory overdrafts cause anxiety about the market outlook. Since the beginning of February, the term “buying the dip” has become a hotly discussed topic downstream of polyester chips. Both traders and chip spinning factories have actively participated in the army of “buying the dip”. Since the price of semi-gloss chips exceeded 6,000, Some people saw the “opportunity” and stocked up. Unexpectedly, overseas public health incidents intensified, further dragging down the market’s purchasing power. Polyester chips began to fall off a cliff, until they are currently around 4,250 yuan/ton.
Many downstream purchase slices have only paid deposits, but have been unable to come to pick up the goods. Polyester companies are worried, fearing that the downstream companies will regret their orders due to the sharp drop in prices. Many companies have full inventories, but they still have no choice but to say that they are temporarily Not in stock.
For chip spinning and traders, stocking up in large quantities may be risky. After investigation, the chip spinning factory has already stocked 15-45 days worth of chip raw materials in the early stage. On the basis of the loss of foreign trade orders and the scarcity of domestic trade orders, the company’s operating pressure has increased sharply. This large-scale stocking operation has put pressure on production and operations. If it further intensifies, conflicts such as excessive production costs and corporate financial constraints may become more prominent.
As for traders, the large amount of stocking on Thursday did not reflect “preparing for a rainy day”, and the actual unit price on the second day did not rise as expected. If a large amount of goods is stocked, in the short and medium term, they may face “price but no price”. market” risk.
In the short term, you must not blindly stock up on goods to buy the bottom. It is understandable that you just need to stock up. Even if this “bottom” is a “bottom”, the bottoming time is a long and repeated process. It is recommended to build positions in batches. The first half of 2020 is destined to be cold and difficult. Don’t follow the trend and be blind, for there will be real sunshine and sunshine.
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