The General Administration of Customs of China released national goods trade data for April 2020 on May 7. In the first four months, the total import and export value of goods trade was 9.07 trillion yuan, down 4.9% from the same period last year (the same below), and the decline was 1.5 percentage points narrower than the first quarter, of which exports were 4.74 trillion yuan, down 6.4%. In April, foreign trade imports and exports were 2.5 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.7%, and exports were 1.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2%.
Among them, textile exports rebounded sharply in April, driving overall textile and apparel exports to grow. .
So, does this mean that the foreign trade situation has been “optimized”? When will the real “bottom rebound” occur?
Textile exports rebounded sharply in April Clothing Exports continue to fall
In April, there were obvious differences in the exports of textiles and clothing: Textiles rebounded quickly, driven by anti-epidemic supplies, and drove overall export growth. Clothing exports continued to decline due to reduced external market demand, and the gap between the two further widened. In April, textile exports more than doubled that of clothing.
Textiles and clothing exports in RMB:
From January to April 2020, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were 466.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4%, of which textile exports were 261.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% , clothing exports reached 205.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%.
In April, textile and clothing exports were 150.17 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8%, of which textile exports were 102.79 billion yuan, an increase of 56.2%, and clothing exports were 47.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.1%.
Textiles and clothing exports in US dollars:
From January to April 2020, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$66.62 billion, a decrease of 10% (National Trade in Goods Exports fell by 9%), of which textile exports were US$37.31 billion, an increase of 2.9%, and clothing exports were US$29.31 billion, a decrease of 22.3%.
In April, textile and clothing exports were US$21.36 billion, an increase of 9.8% (national exports of goods trade increased by 3.5%), of which textile exports were US$14.62 billion, an increase of 49.3%, and clothing exports were US$6.74 billion, a decrease of 30.3%. .
It will take time for the three major factors to drive the rebound to bottom out and pick up again
The difficulty is not over yet.
Experts analyzed that China’s exports rebounded sharply in April mainly because orders in hand in the early stage entered the execution peak.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that exports rebounded significantly in April, mainly because a large number of foreign trade companies have resumed work and production, and are currently affected by the epidemic. Orders are gradually executed.
Secondly, the surge in exports of anti-epidemic materials has also driven the recovery of exports to a certain extent. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, since April, China’s average daily export volume of anti-epidemic materials has increased from about 1 billion yuan in the first half of the month to more than 3 billion yuan in the recent period, and has continued to increase more than three times within a month.
In addition, the base effect is also one of the reasons why export growth in April exceeded expectations.
China’s total export value increased by only 3.1% in April last year, which was at a low level for the whole year.
However, the sharp increase in exports in April does not mean that China’s exports have “already prospered”.
On the one hand, since mid-March, Europe and the United States have canceled a large number of orders due to the severe epidemic situation, and the impact will gradually appear in the next few months.
Wang Jun, a member of the Academic Committee of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that due to the time lag, the current export data has not reflected the impact of canceled orders on Chinese foreign trade companies, nor has it fully reflected the current real situation of foreign trade companies. situation.
In Bai Ming’s view, China’s exports may hit bottom in May or June, and the real turnaround may not occur until the second half of the year.
On the other hand, although some countries are cautiously relaxing strict restrictions on economic activities, it will take a while for demand to return to the state before the epidemic. Export companies may have to face “order shortages” for a period of time. “.
As Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said on the 7th, although the decline in foreign trade data in April narrowed, foreign trade development still faces greater downward pressure. The growth of overseas epidemic outbreaks continues, which has had a huge impact on the global economy and trade. Uncertainty and instability factors have increased significantly, and foreign trade development faces “unprecedented” risks and challenges.
Gao Feng revealed that judging from the Ministry of Commerce’s recent surveys of key provinces and cities, import and export chambers of commerce and key enterprises, foreign trade companies still face cancellation or postponement of existing orders, difficulties in signing new orders, and logistical difficulties. Chang and many other difficulties.
Policy “red envelopes” are on the way
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