According to feedback from foreign businessmen and cotton trading companies in Qingdao, Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang and other places, the total inventory of bonded cotton + non-bonded cotton in early July decreased compared with the same period in June, but the magnitude was not significant, and the pressure on storage capacity was not relieved significantly. obvious.
Although in the past half month, the cotton outside the port has increased due to the rise of ICE cotton futures and the rotation of cotton reserves. Restricted by factors such as the very slow recovery of export orders and other factors, inquiry and transaction, and shipments are not smooth (some traders have lowered the basis spread of foreign cotton as ICE/Zheng cotton has risen, but with little effect); however, the arrival and storage of goods in Hong Kong The quantity of foreign cotton is even lower. Except for a small amount of 2019/20 US cotton, the quantities of Australian cotton, Brazilian cotton, West African cotton and Indian cotton are all low. “The shipment is slow but the storage is also small”, so the overall situation is in a weak balance state. .
A medium-sized cotton company in Qingdao stated that although Brazilian farmers still have about 150,000 tons of 2019 cotton unsold (high cost, high price, poor quality), but due to the The COVID-19 epidemic continues to rage, not only land transportation, port shipping, etc. are affected, but the industry also predicts that the acquisition and processing of seed cotton in gin mills in 2020 will also slow down significantly, resulting in possible variables in contract execution. Therefore, although there are abundant pre-sale resources for Brazilian cotton in the recent September/December shipping schedule, and the basis difference is significantly lower than that in May and June (the current basis difference of M 1-1/8 Brazilian cotton is 6.25-7 cents/pound; SM 1-5 /32 basis 8.5-9.5 cents/pound), but the signing progress of Chinese traders and cotton textile companies has slowed down somewhat, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is getting stronger.
Judging from the resource quotations, surveys and estimates of international cotton merchants and import companies, as of early July, the total bonded + non-bonded cotton volume in China’s major ports is expected to be 56-58 Ten thousand tons, of which the foreign cotton inventory in the surrounding areas of Qingdao and Jinan is about 350,000-360,000 tons; Zhangjiagang bonded + non-bonded cotton is about 95,000 tons, and the total foreign cotton inventory in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Nanjing, Ningbo, Tianjin and other ports is 115,000-125,000 tons. (Due to insufficient survey samples, there may be some discrepancies); It is estimated that the proportion of US cotton in 2018/19 and 2019/20 will be close to “half of the country”, and the others are Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton, West African cotton, etc. It is worth noting that in the near future In 2019/20, the CNF and CIF quotations for Indian cotton cargoes continued to increase, and the basis spread also dropped to -0.5 to -2 cents/pound, and they had to passively follow the downward adjustments of Australian cotton and Brazilian cotton. </p
