Since the beginning of this year, both the trade war and the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic have had a greater impact on the commodity market, and the PTA industry has also shown several characteristics.
From a global perspective, terminal demand has been greatly affected by the epidemic. In addition to epidemic prevention materials, domestic sales and exports of textile and clothing have not yet returned to the same period in 2019. The inventory of the PTA industry is at a historical high, but the processing fees of PTA factories are still high, and the profits of aromatics are still at a historical low.
The participants generally believed that production capacity may be a core issue in the future PTA market trend.
“PTA overcapacity will still be the main contradiction in the future. The average growth rate of polyester end production demand is 8%-10%, because it is difficult to phase out PTA production capacity. As long as the growth rate of PTA production capacity is maintained or Beyond this level, excess will continue to exist.” Kuang Bo, the relevant person in charge of the industrial service group of Yongan Futures Institutional Management Headquarters, said.
PX social inventory has reached a record high, and profit margins have been compressed to extremely low levels. If crude oil does not fluctuate significantly, PTA cost support is basically in place, and the oscillation will be strong in the short term.
“The volume of goods stored at low prices in the early stage is large, and as long as there is a premium in futures, the suppression of hedging will continue to exist, and the overall upside space is limited.” In Kuang Bo’s view, as new devices continue to develop in the later period, The investment and accumulated inventory will also continue, and PTA will focus on compressing profits.
Similarly, Shen Ye, a production capacity analyst at Yongfu Materials, believes that in the short term, PTA will maintain a state of high production capacity, high inventory, and low volatility.
“With the expansion of polyester production capacity and the impact of the epidemic, the surplus pattern of the polyester yarn industry will continue. New and old production capacity will be replaced under low profits. The downstream product polyester yarn will determine the upper limit of raw material prices.” Shen Ye said, PTA , EG’s high inventory will inevitably be accompanied by low volatility of the absolute prices of the two varieties, so we can pay attention to the periodic opportunities in the relative prices between the two varieties. In addition, we can still pay attention to the short-term driving trends brought about by month-on-month changes in supply and demand.
It is worth mentioning that high inventories will still require low profits from the industry to clear production capacity in the medium to long term, and we can pay attention to industry profit contraction opportunities.
White sugar
At present, the adverse factors caused by the epidemic are gradually being digested, and commodity prices have stabilized.
The guests at the meeting believed that new sugar production has ended, and the output this year has slightly decreased year-on-year. It is currently in the peak summer sugary food stocking season, and combined with the demand for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in the later period, the supply and demand situation is expected to gradually improve. This year, sugar mills have relatively little financial pressure and are more willing to raise prices. However, the elimination of safeguard taxes has resulted in better profits from extra-quota imports, and the market is worried that the increase in processed sugar and substitutes will squeeze out market share.
“Considering that the fundamentals have been restored, but the systemic risks and sugar-related policy risks are relatively large, sugar may fluctuate upward in the second half of the year.” Ni Xiaowei, a sugar analyst at Zheshang Futures, believes that from the traditional seasonal It seems that June to September is the peak demand season, and then demand will gradually decline until the later New Year’s Day and Spring Festival stocking market.
“Currently, the financial pressure on sugar mills is weaker than in previous years, and the willingness to raise prices is strong. Under the background of the epidemic, the support below is strong. Overall, the decline in sugar prices in sales areas has gradually ended, and sugar mills are gradually becoming bullish. , although peak season demand brings benefits, the crowding out of demand by imports and substitutes still needs attention.” Ni Xiaowei said.
In the view of Sun Ye, a sugar trader at Yuanda Resources Co., Ltd., the future trend of raw sugar needs to focus on the following aspects. First, from the perspective of Brazil, sugar production has increased significantly, in line with expectations. The drag margin of alcohol-ratio is weakening. The exchange rate is still a core factor. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the impact of a small drought on the market. Second, in the Indian market, the weather is good, the new season production increase is expected to be strong, and export pressure continues. New season production and subsidy policies are core factors, which are difficult to determine for the time being, so we will continue to pay attention. Third, Thailand has reduced production this season and is currently in a low inventory state. Production is expected to continue to decrease in the new season. Therefore, the output of less than 10 million tons will be the support, and the basis will most likely remain high. </p
