As of August 31, the “2020 New Cotton Launch Questionnaire” has collected a total of Nearly 200 survey data, thank you all for your active participation. Judging from the survey results, more than 50% of the participants believe that the open-scale price of hand-picked cotton in Xinjiang is 5.0-6.0 yuan/kg, and the open-scale price of machine-picked cotton is between 4.0-5.5 yuan/kg. Most participants believe that September- At the end of December, Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices were stable or opened lower and moved higher, indicating optimistic expectations for the domestic cotton market in the new year. 1. The scope of the survey covers all links of the industrial chain. Participants in this new cotton survey include cotton farmers, cotton processing companies, traders, textile companies and other links in the cotton textile industry chain, covering major areas such as northern Xinjiang, southern Xinjiang, the Yangtze River Basin, and the Yellow River Basin. Cotton production and marketing area.
2. The epidemic has a slight impact on the picking and acquisition of new flowers in the near future The epidemic situation in Xinjiang is basically stable, but local prevention and control measures are not lax. The survey shows that more than 50% of the participants expect that the number of contracting companies in Xinjiang will decrease this year compared with last year. The epidemic has a slight impact on new cotton picking, especially hand-picked cotton. The progress of preparation of equipment and personnel in the ginning plant is delayed compared with last year.
3. Large-scale picking of new flowers The time is the same as or earlier than last year
The weather in Xinjiang this year is generally good and suitable for cotton growth. According to the survey results, the market expects that new flowers will start to be picked after September. More than 40% believe that the scale of picking time will be the same as in previous years, 34% will be earlier than the previous year, and 23% will be later than the previous year.
4. The price of new flowers is expected to be stable. From the survey, the price of hand-picked cotton is expected to be 5.0-5.5 yuan/ Kilogram and 5.5-6.0 yuan/kg are the majority, accounting for 33% and 28% respectively, which are slightly lower than the mainstream hand-picked cotton prices during the purchase period last year. The open scale price of machine-picked cotton accounts for 32% at 4.5-5.0 yuan/kg, followed by 4.0-4.5 and 5.0-5.5 yuan/kg, accounting for 23% and 21% respectively, which are basically the same as last year.
5. The estimated lint processing cost is concentrated at 11,000-13,000 yuan/ton. From the survey results, Xinjiang in 2020/21 The average processing cost of purchased seed cotton equivalent to 3128B grade lint cotton (including processing fee of 1,000 yuan/ton) is expected to be 12,000 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the processing cost of the previous year. Among them, nearly 40% of the participants in the survey believe that it will be between 12,000-13,000 yuan/ton. tons, 31.6% believe that the cost is between 11,000-12,000 yuan/ton. The proportions below 11,000 yuan/ton and above 13,000 yuan/ton are both small.
6. The expected price of cotton seed is slightly higher, and the clothing content of new cotton. Normal cotton seed price and clothing content are crucial to the price of seed cotton. Judging from the survey results, more than 40% of the participants believe that the price of cottonseed in 2020 will be 1.8-2.2 yuan/kg, which is slightly higher than the mainstream cottonseed price during the purchase period last year. Most believe that the official clothing rate of Xinjiang seed cotton in 2020 will be between 37-40, which is not much different from previous years.
7. The market is optimistic and cautious about the new cotton acquisition situation. Judging from the survey results, 33% of the participants believe that the initial scale opening will be For normal acquisitions, 27% believe they are waiting and waiting, 23% believe they are competing for resources, and only 18% believe they are acquiring at low prices. Most people believe that the price trend of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices from September to December is stable and opens low and goes high, while the possibility of opening high, going low and experiencing large fluctuations is less likely.
8. Most cotton companies maintained capital or made profits last year. From the survey, most cotton companies chose to compete with Textile mills and traders cooperate to sell lint cotton, accounting for 33% and 25% respectively. A small number of companies sell through futures companies and other channels. Most companies maintained capital or made a small profit, while a few companies suffered losses.
9. The market is optimistic about the domestic cotton market in the new year. The survey shows that 64.8% of the participants believe that enterprises in the new year There will be profits, 21.6% believe in capital-guaranteed operations, and a smaller proportion believe in loss-making operations and substantial profits. The market is relatively optimistic about the trend of cotton purchase prices in the new year. 41.9% believe that cotton prices will recover steadily, 27.2% will operate smoothly, 16.7% will open low and move high, and a small number will open high, move low or fluctuate significantly.
Judging from the survey, the market is relatively optimistic about the domestic cotton market in the new year. However, judging from the current external situation, the overseas economy is still shrinking. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will decline in 2020. GDP shrank by 4.9%, and the GDP of the United States and India fell by 31.7% and 23.9% respectively in the second quarter, both of which set historical records. As my country’s epidemic has been effectively controlled for the first time in the world and the economy has steadily recovered, the overall cotton market is cautiously optimistic. Judging from recent surveys, the downstream textile market has gradually stabilized, but there is still a certain gap compared with before the epidemic. In the new year, all market entities need to establish bottom-line thinking, avoid risks, and maintain independent thinking in order to achieve steady and long-term progress.
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