In the period from November 8 to November 12, 2020, the external market time, the fog of the US election cleared up, the new crown vaccine research and development achieved major breakthroughs, and risk appetite was strong Return, the commodity market has been significantly boosted, European and American crude oil futures prices have continued to rise to price highs since early September, and recent remarks by the alliance of oil-producing countries to extend the current scale of production cuts to 2021 and even consider further production cuts have also supported oil prices. However, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has worsened. Many European countries have re-initiated social blockades, while the number of new confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 100,000 for several consecutive days. The optimism brought by the vaccine has gradually dissipated. EIA crude oil inventories have unexpectedly increased, and oil prices have synchronized with the stock market. Begins to oscillate downward.
In terms of price, Zhongyu Information monitoring data shows that the closing price of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange on November 12, 2020 was US$41.12 per barrel, an increase of 3.98 compared with last Friday. US dollars/barrel, an increase of 10.72%; the closing price of Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange on November 12 was US$43.53/barrel, an increase of US$4.08/barrel, or 10.34%, compared with last Friday. From November 8 to November 12, the average closing price of WTI was US$41.06/barrel, an increase of US$3.15/barrel, or 8.30%, from last week. The average closing price of Brent was US$43.34/barrel, an increase of US$3.15/barrel from last week. It increased by US$3.28/barrel and dropped by 8.18%. The four-day average price difference between Brent and WTI is US$2.28/barrel, which is US$0.13/barrel wider than last week.
The US election has almost settled, and the market has begun to shift its attention. Pfizer announced that its experimental COVID-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective. This major benefit has become the trigger for the recent retaliatory rebound in risk assets, because there is no doubt that the COVID-19 epidemic is the culprit that has caused the current quagmire in oil prices. In addition, the market welcomed the early eye-catching data on API crude oil, as US API inventories have been in the same direction as EIA data for a long time, which jointly promoted a wide recovery in oil prices.
However, the enthusiasm caused by the vaccine quickly faded, because it is not feasible to quickly market and popularize the vaccine, and the epidemic prevention situation in Europe and the United States is close to getting out of control again, which will seriously hinder the economic recovery process, thus Impact on the recovery of fuel demand. The series of recently disclosed economic data have improved compared with the previous period, and the U.S. job market seems to be recovering. The U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 709,000 in the week ending November 7, the highest level since March. lowest level. However, a more serious epidemic is sweeping across the United States, and the healthy recovery of the job market is very likely to be stifled. The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data released later this week due to the delay of the U.S. holiday unexpectedly increased significantly, as of the week of November 6. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 4.278 million barrels to 488.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.9%. It was previously expected to decrease by 1.9 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 7.998 million barrels. This deviates from the API data and seriously dampens the market’s recent accumulation of bull confidence. At this stage, major energy agency reports have shown pessimistic expectations, which has further affected the market mentality. Although core oil-producing countries have recently released signals to extend the scale of production cuts, this is not enough to form a solid support for oil prices. We judge that short-term oil prices will correct downwards. In the next cycle, U.S. crude oil may return to below $40/barrel, and Brent may perform relatively strongly.
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