Overview
External crude oil continued to rise last week, with the main Brent 02 contract increasing by 4.59% on a weekly basis and exceeding US$52 during the week. The main WTI 02 contract has a weekly increase of 1.4%. The main contract of SC crude oil 2102 rose sharply last week following the external market, with a weekly increase of 4.61%.
The epidemic continues to break out in the United States. The United States added more than 260,000 new cases in a single day, setting a new high. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases reached 17.8884 million, with more than 320,000 deaths. India and Brazil rank second and third in cumulative confirmed cases. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in India exceeds 10 million. Pay attention to vaccine progress.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA rose sharply to 3,640 yuan/ton during the week. The processing difference of TA disk in recent months basically fluctuated between 620-720 last week, and the main processing difference basically fluctuated between 740-840, with little change from the previous month. Yangzi Petrochemical’s 350,000-ton unit was shut down at 11.3, and restart is pending; Zhongtai Chemical’s 1.2 million-ton unit was shut down at 10.5, and is currently restarting, and products are expected to be released in the near future; Zhuhai BP Petrochemical’s 1.1-million-ton unit was overhauled last weekend and is expected to restart at the end of December; Han Due to the tight supply of raw materials for the 2.2 million-ton unit of PetroChina due to the closure of shipping routes, the load may be reduced for later installations. PTA’s domestic load dropped to 89.9%. Maintenance plan: Fuhua Industry and Trade’s 4.5 million-ton unit is scheduled to be inspected starting on December 23. Polyester load maintains stability at high levels.
As of last Friday, the comprehensive load of polyester was 90.7%. Last week, loom operations in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged, while texturing, printing and dyeing declined slightly. The texturing start-up dropped slightly to 92%; the overall loom start-up remained at 86%. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in November fell by 8% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. It is expected that the decline will continue to improve to -2% in December. Polyester is currently profitable. Crude oil prices continued to rise last week, with strong cost support. The PTA-PX spread fluctuated at a low level. Supply and demand have not weakened yet.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 4,040 yuan/ton; coal-based ethylene glycol The nearby price has risen sharply to 3,750 yuan/ton. The main basis of ethylene glycol strengthened sharply last Friday. As of December 14, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 976,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period.
According to shipping reports, from December 14th to December 20th, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 170,000 tons, with a significant increase in arrivals. However, due to the Containers fell into the water at the Yangtze River port and navigation was blocked, and large ships were unable to enter the port. Shipments were good during the week, but there were still expectations of significant destocking last week.
As of December 17, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 61.89%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 53.59%. Domestic supply fell slightly. Overseas: Lotte Dashan 1#’s restart plan has been postponed. A set of 828,000 tons from Nanya (USA) has now delivered qualified products, and product quality is being optimized. The increase in overseas supply may be delayed, and the increase in January may be more obvious. EG05 is relatively volatile in the short term.
Cost and profit
1. Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, PX
NPT (cfr Japan) rose sharply last week following crude oil, rising to $448.5/ton on Friday. Crude oil continued to rise last week, with the main Brent 02 contract rising by 4.59% on a weekly basis and exceeding $52 during the week. The main WTI 02 contract has a weekly increase of 1.4%. The naphtha-Brent spread fluctuated and widened last week, reaching US$86 as of last Friday; the naphtha-WTI spread followed the same trend, reaching around US$109 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) continued to rise this week following crude oil, rising to US$627 as of last Friday. The PX-NPT spread fluctuated at a low level last week, reaching US$147 as of last Friday. The operating rates of PX China and Asia both dropped significantly from the previous week.
2 Cost and profit changes
Oil-based ethylene glycol spot The average internal price rose sharply during the week, rising to 4,040 yuan/ton last Friday. The spot price near coal production has risen sharply to 3,750 yuan/ton. Coal prices have risen sharply, and coal production losses have intensified. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene to ethylene glycol remained basically stable this week compared with last week, with a loss of US$184/ton. Naphtha to ethylene glycol maintains a basic breakeven, and the loss increased slightly to around US$16 last week. The price of methanol has risen sharply, and the cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route has sharply increased to more than 2,000 yuan/ton.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic installation: Yangzi The 350,000-ton petrochemical unit was shut down at 11.3, and the restart is to be determined; the 1.2 million-ton unit of Zhongtai Chemical was shut down at 10.5, and is currently restarting, and products are expected to be released in the near future; the 1.1-million-ton unit of Zhuhai BP Petrochemical was inspected last weekend and is expected to restart at the end of December; Hanbang Due to the tight supply of raw materials for the 2.2 million-ton petrochemical plant due to the shipping ban, the load may be reduced in the later stages of the process. PTA’s domestic load dropped to 89.9%.
Maintenance plan: Fuhua Industry and Trade’s 4.5 million ton unit plans to undergo maintenance starting from December 23.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: Starting from December 2020, the CCF MEG production capacity will be revised up to 15.835 million tons, the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity will be revised up to 5.99 million tons, and the new river…�Energy Yongcheng Phase II has 200,000 tons and Xinjiang Tianye has 600,000 tons. As of December 17, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 61.89%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 53.59%. Domestic supply fell slightly. Sinopec Wuhan’s 280,000-ton unit has been shut down for maintenance since 10.15 and is currently restarting. MEG is expected to discharge materials around the 20th; CNOOC’s Phase II load has dropped slightly by around 15% and is expected to last until the end of the month; Henan Yongcheng’s 200,000-ton unit has been temporarily shut down since 11.17. Restart to be determined; Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical’s 400,000-ton unit will be inspected from 11.20. It is currently restarting and has not released materials yet. Maintenance plan: Fude Energy plans to perform maintenance for 10 days in January; Maoming Petrochemical’s 120,000-ton unit maintenance plan is postponed to 2021.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
2PTA inventory
PTA’s converted social total inventory declined slightly last week, of which warehouse receipts continued to rebound sharply, PTA factory inventory dropped significantly, and polyester Factory raw material inventories have also dropped significantly. Circulation inventories dropped significantly last week.
3 Ethylene Glycol Import and Port Inventory
As of December 14, East China Main Port The regional MEG port inventory is approximately 976,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from December 14th to December 20th, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 170,000 tons, with a significant increase in arrivals. However, due to the closure of shipping containers overboard at the Yangtze River ports during the week, large ships were unable to enter the port. Domestic shipments are good, and there are still expectations of substantial destocking last week.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
Effective from December 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity has been revised upward to 63.2 million tons, with an additional 300,000 tons of Tongkun and 300,000 tons of Xinfengming added. Last week, the short fiber bottle flakes were installed and inspected, and the polyester load was moderately reduced. As of last Friday, the comprehensive load of polyester was 90.7%. In addition, there are three sets of polyester plants scheduled for maintenance near the weekend, involving a production capacity of about 700,000 tons.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of last Friday, the POY, FDY, and DTY equity inventories of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were at 7.7, 11.7, and 12.5 days respectively. . Filament yarn basically continues to be destocked, and currently all polyester products are profitable. Polyester staple fiber stocks fell slightly to -3.4 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes dropped slightly to 20-25 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester bottle flakes remains at the highest level for the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester filament is at the equilibrium level for the same period in the past.
2 Terminal Situation
Last week, the looms started in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang were maintained, and texturing, printing and dyeing increased slightly. decline. The texturing start-up dropped slightly to 92%; the overall loom start-up remained at 86%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area dropped to 40 days in early November and then rose again to 41.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in November fell by 8% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. It is expected that the decline will continue to improve to -2% in December. </p
