Introduction: On the eve of the Spring Festival, viscose staple fiber has not stabilized due to the downstream holiday. Manufacturers still have new products in stages because they hold certain pre-sale orders. Moving quotations, on the first day of trading after the holiday, corporate quotations also rose one after another. As of February 18, the base price of viscose staple fiber was 14,700, a cumulative increase of 890, or 6.36%, from February 10. Judging from the orders held by manufacturers, the price of viscose staple fiber is expected to remain strong before the end of March.
After viscose staple fiber hit a record low in July 2020, industry prices have gradually increased. The long-term decline has caused manufacturers to be cautious during the rebound. It rose slowly until October, when the surge in yarn orders began to drive viscose staple fiber into a rapid growth channel. This time, the industry’s cash flow finally turned negative to positive, and subsequent breakthroughs were made in November, January, and February. Prices for the same period in 2019 and 2018. As of February 18, 2021, Longzhong Information calculated that the base price of viscose staple fiber was 14,880, a cumulative increase of 890, or 6.36%, from February 10, 2021, an increase of 52.62% from the same period in 2020, and an increase of 11.04% from the same period in 2019. , an increase of 1.57% compared with the same period in 2018. See Figure 1 for details.
Figure 1
The price increase of viscose staple fiber is mostly due to the support of orders and the linkage of bulk commodities.
The rise in viscose staple fiber after the holiday is not due to changes in fundamentals during the Spring Festival holiday, but because the industry has known early on that viscose staple fiber manufacturers have There are orders and the opening after the holiday will eventually rise, and the industry is optimistic about the overall macroeconomic policy expectations in 2021. The continuous rise in international crude oil futures during the holiday has caused the daily limit of polyester staple fiber on the first day after the holiday. Cotton also opened higher, and fiber and raw materials Products in this category have increased without falling (see Table 1). Viscose staple fiber has followed the trend and has also risen smoothly. In terms of industry fundamentals during the Spring Festival, the actual physical inventory of viscose staple fiber increased due to the suspension of shipments during the Spring Festival, and the downstream rayon yarn also declined due to concentrated shutdowns during the Spring Festival. See Figure 2 and Figure 3 for details.
Figure 2
As of February 18, the physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories across the country totaled 135,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons from February 10. The increase in physical inventory of factories was mainly due to the stagnation of logistics during the Spring Festival. Logistics is gradually picking up since the seventh day of the Lunar New Year. Recovery, and judging from the pre-sale orders held by viscose staple fiber companies, it is expected that the industry’s physical inventory will still be relatively low at the end of March.
Figure 3
As of February 18, the average operating rate of enterprises in the country’s main rayon yarn production areas was 36%, an increase of 10 percentage points from before the holiday. Starting from February 19th (the eighth day of the Lunar New Year), a large number of spinning mills in Xiaoshan, Gaomi, Xinxiang, Wujiang and other places will start up in a centralized manner. It is expected that the overall start-up rate of the rayon yarn industry may return to more than 50% tomorrow, and this year Jiangsu and Zhejiang There are still some non-local workers staying in factories for production in Fujian, Fujian and other places. The average start-up level of the industry is actually higher than the same period in previous years. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the Qingming Festival and May Day holiday will drive some non-local workers to leave the factory appropriately. It is expected to have an impact on the subsequent start-up of rayon yarn. limited.
And rayon yarn was delisted earlier before the holiday , The yarn price of viscose staple fiber has not followed up significantly during the subsequent rise. If the current raw material price is calculated at 15,000 yuan/ton, the labor cost of rayon yarn is limited, so the opening of rayon yarn after the holiday will see a significant increase. Today There are also some eddy currents, Siro, and tight games that opened at an increase of 500-1,000 yuan/ton.
The market in the first quarter is generally optimistic
The current rayon yarn industry is successfully restarting, and viscose Staple fiber will immediately implement pre-holiday order shipments, and the factory’s physical inventory will still decline. The relatively tight transportation situation of dissolving pulp before the end of April also limits the factory’s pre-sale efforts. Therefore, it is expected that the price of viscose staple fiber will continue to rise, industry benchmark After the price reaches 15,000 yuan/ton, it is recommended to find a new resistance level.
</p
