Anyone who knows a little bit about the polyester industry chain should be familiar with the background of PTA overcapacity. Since the beginning of the domestic refining era, new technologies and large production capacities have rapidly poured into the PTA industry. In the summer of 2018, PTA worth 8,000 yuan became the last song. With the huge amount of new production capacity, PTA entered a bear market cycle. The previous bear market lasted for four years and remained at the bottom for more than two years.
However, there were two rebounds of more than 10% during the period, respectively in early 2019 and in the summer, when the market plummeted to new lows. Therefore, even in a bear market, where a periodic mismatch of supply and demand is coupled with macro or other positive factors, bulls are not without any opportunities.
In the past two days, the opportunity has come again! Recently, PTA has been rising fiercely and has been rising since early 2021. It rose from the lowest point of 4928 to 5330, an increase of 8.2%. On July 22, it went all the way to the daily limit.
Today, the surge in the PTA industry has caused market shock. The market currently believes that this rise The main reason is that the Yangtze River main port was closed for three days due to the typhoon, and unloading in the Zhapu area was affected. The contradiction between supply and demand in some areas of PTA intensified, causing a sharp rise in the market. From the perspective of PTA supply and demand pattern, the current high temperature demand for polyester remains strong in the off-season, with the operating rate close to 94%, while the supply-side PTA device maintenance remains high. The balance sheet is expected to maintain destocking from July to August, and the Yangtze River shipping closure will intensify in the short term. The contradiction between supply and demand caused a sharp rise in the market.
However, the editor on the other side believes that although there is indeed fundamental support, it is also undeniable that there is vicious hype behind the scenes. The main reason is the change in the operation strategy of long-term decline must rise. Recently, The price of crude oil can only be regarded as a moderate increase, and it is accompanied by shocks, but the price of PTA has skyrocketed, and the traces of capital speculation are very obvious. Just like the fundamentals of tight balance between PTA supply and demand and psychological expectations factors such as rising oil prices, they can provide reasons and support for capital speculators. According to Flush, the main futures dealers were significantly increasing their long positions on the 21st. The long positions of the first 20 futures dealers increased by 40,400 lots; the short positions increased by 4,277 lots; and the net positions increased by 36,200 lots compared with the previous day. The data shows that while the market continues to rise, the main futures dealers show signs of further betting on long orders.
Cause and effect follow each other, and PTA went from a sharp decline to a sharp rise. In this regard, textile companies are also discussing a lot. Last year, the raw material market rose and fell sharply, and many textile companies suffered greatly. Raw materials surged in the early stage, and many manufacturers took the opportunity to stock up. Raw material inventories rose sharply. After that, the market took a turn for the worse. The cost of raw materials was too high and the price was higher than the market level. The products could only be shipped at low prices, and the profits of textile companies were damaged. History is always similar, what choice is there this time?
At present, the main support for the rise in raw material prices is polyester raw materials. If the increase in polyester raw materials continues in the future, then textile raw materials will inevitably return to the upward trend. On the other hand, demand has a greater impact on raw material prices. Maybe many textile companies in the market feel that the recent textile market is average and orders have not substantially improved. However, due to the improvement of autumn and winter fabrics, advance stocking, and better expectations for the second half of the year, etc. The reason is that in fact, the weaving end has already begun to bottom out, and the operating rate has rebounded significantly.
It can be clearly seen from the chart that the startup rates of various textile clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have rebounded significantly recently. , some areas have reached the highest peak this year, even the same as last year during the peak season. Specific analysis shows that the recent weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted back from the last week of June. This time point is very consistent with the price of raw materials stopping falling and rising. Obviously, not all support for raw material prices comes from raw material prices. The rebound in downstream demand also plays a big role.
But the extreme reaction of the daily limit is more of a financial game. This overreaction may lay hidden dangers for the market outlook!
At present, the fundamentals of PTA have not changed significantly in the long term. Except for the impact of raw materials, the extreme reaction of the daily limit is more of a reflection of It can only be explained by the financial game. Do you still remember the previous state of PTA rising and falling? This overreaction will lay hidden dangers for the market outlook! At present, PTA’s periodic profits have reached a new high. As of the 21st, the processing fee for the PTA09 contract has exceeded 700 yuan/ton.
But similarly, although some downstream weaving enterprises have indeed increased the price of gray fabrics due to the increase in raw materials, the price increase has been tentative to a large extent, resulting in costs being repeatedly reduced. With the increase, manufacturers’ profits have become compressed biscuits, and some products have even fallen into losses! Due to the sharp rise in raw material costs, it has been difficult for traders to quote prices that meet the psychological expectations of weaving companies recently, which may cause companies to be more cautious in accepting orders.
In addition, the recent abnormal fluctuations in the polyester market have also made weaving companies particularly entangled. Especially when it comes to buying raw materials: If you buy, you are afraid that the price of raw materials will fall in the future, and the fabrics made at the current price will not be competitive in the market; if you don’t buy, there will be no raw materials to use, and the operation of the machine will be affected.
Although facing “extreme conditions” in the raw material market, under the situation of sluggish demand,�Amidst the current situation of insufficient orders, textile companies are unable to stand alone. The editor believes that the short-term market is still mainly stable, and the quotations are relatively strong. Perhaps under the stimulation of buying up raw materials instead of buying down, the situation has relatively improved. </p
