August is the traditional low season for demand. Polyester filament production and sales are sluggish. Enterprise inventories continue to increase and the frequency of promotions is accelerated. However, terminal demand is sluggish, user purchasing intensity is not strong, and polyester filament production and sales data are poor. According to statistics, during the month, the average daily production and sales of domestic polyester filament remained at 30% to 50%. During the period, there were 4 large-scale profit promotions. During the promotion period, the production and sales were not as good as the industry expected. The average daily production and sales rate of the two rounds of promotions in the middle of the month was around 200%. , the promotions at the beginning of the month and on the 25th failed to exceed 100.
Faced with the fickle polyester market, polyester product prices have fallen sharply in recent times, leaving people in the industry chain at a loss.
On the other hand, the inventory of polyester filament and terminal weaving products has shown an upward trend, and the inventory of weaving raw materials has continued to decline since the third quarter, which also confirms The scale and frequency of downstream weaving procurement are decreasing. The repeated epidemics at home and abroad have caused greater resistance to textile and clothing exports, while domestic demand is sluggish, and end-use weaving companies are struggling. At present, there is a trend of reducing the load on looms in many places, and some companies with high inventories have temporarily stopped. Even if the price of raw materials is at a low level, end-users There is no way to stock up on large quantities of goods. At present, most users just need to purchase. When polyester filament is on sale, most purchases can only be made within a week.
Currently, weak downstream demand for raw materials is suppressing the operation of the entire polyester industry chain. Polyester stock has entered the inventory accumulation stage since August. Now the overall stock of the polyester market has reached The price of goods has rebounded, and manufacturers’ inventories are under great pressure.
Today’s frequent promotions may not change the current predicament of polyester filament yarns. However, as the inventory pressure of enterprises increases, promotions are an effective means of shipment. Polyester filament yarn companies We are currently in a dilemma. When will the market bottom out? Where will the market outlook go?
Orders are in the fog, and the weaving market is “fighting” again!
At present, the market has two judgments about the next weaving market: one is that during the traditional peak season in September, the market demand for conventional products is very large, and now there seems to be a lot of it. Inventory sells out quickly.
The other, on the contrary, believes that there is no so-called “peak season” in the textile market in the second half of the year, and they seem very unconfident.
The former judgment is too optimistic, while the second judgment is too pessimistic. In what direction will the textile market develop in the future?
The editor believes that from a downstream perspective, there are certain problems in the textile trade market recently. The rising sea freight and the poor trade environment this year caused by the epidemic have led to the market Extreme caution resulted in a slow start in sales.
The distribution of raw material inventory in the entire industry chain is not very reasonable. However, the market cannot remain depressed forever. The demand will always appear. Now it is just because of the macro environment and the decline of crude oil and raw materials that some of the demand has been suppressed.
It will take time to restore market confidence, and it also requires some positive external stimulation. From the perspective of textiles and clothing, according to seasonal patterns, the autumn and winter clothing ordering season begins after late September, followed by the beginning of the Christmas season for foreign trade, so the demand for fabrics will also be relatively large. However, the overall environment of the textile market has not changed significantly. The weaving market is still facing problems such as overcapacity and a sluggish clothing industry. It is difficult for the market demand for textiles to increase or decrease significantly in a short period of time.
Terminal textile and apparel export trade is an important opportunity to reverse the “war situation” of the polyester industry, and crude oil is undoubtedly the weather vane of the “war situation” of the polyester industry in the future. Unlike terminal textile and apparel export trade, which may bring relatively obvious positive expectations to polyester in the future, the future of crude oil is not entirely optimistic. As crude oil is the source product of the entire polyester industry chain, it will be difficult for polyester products such as polyester filament to be isolated. For the upstream polyester industry chain, it has experienced several failed attempts to increase prices, and a sharp rise in raw material prices in the short term has become an “impossible mission.”
After September, as the weaving market improves and overall demand picks up, raw material prices may rise for a while, but it will be difficult to rise by thousands of yuan like in previous years. , because the fundamentals no longer allow it.
On the whole, if the downstream gray fabric inventory can be gradually digested in September, weaving enterprises will return to the market If funds are used to drive polyester purchases, the market may have a decent market. The polyester market is also expected to usher in a new round of upward trend after experiencing this stage of shock and bottoming out. </p
