After the Mid-Autumn Festival, PTA futures jumped short and opened higher, boosted by crude oil, and the spot price moved up simultaneously, driving the polyester industry chain to surge.
However, with the decline in oil prices and the continued easing of the PTA supply side, which has caused obvious price pressure, the market has been unable to effectively and sustainably rebound, and has once again returned to a weak and volatile trend. At present, the market is most concerned about the PTA supply situation, such as factory maintenance and planned maintenance and the release of new production capacity.
How is the market outlook for devices? Will it be the last “straw” for PTA’s rise in 2019?
Device maintenance VS production capacity deployment: Who can defeat whom?
According to statistics, the current operating rate of domestic PTA remains at 84.19%, of which Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton device has returned to full capacity operation from 80%; 390 devices are under maintenance million tons, and the loss in September was approximately 113,200 tons. In the fourth quarter, the planned maintenance capacity of domestic PTA companies will reach 16.25 million tons, and the estimated loss according to the plan is about 650,000 tons.
After 2019, the PTA industry will face a new round of production capacity cycle, including new Another set of 2.2 million tons of Fengming, two sets of 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical, 6 million tons of Yisheng Series, and two sets of 2.5 million tons of Tongkun will all be put into production.
As of now, the only new domestic PTA production capacity in 2019 is Sichuan Shengda’s 1 million tons unit, which was put into operation in May, while there are still 5.9 million tons of new units that were put into operation in the fourth quarter. The biggest impact comes from the commissioning of Xinfengming’s 2.2 million tons production capacity at the end of Q3 2019.
Changes in PTA effective capacity utilization
Datasource:Compilationofpublicinformation
ThecurrentdomesticPTAproductioncapacitybaseis50.605milliontons,althoughdownstreampolyesterproductioncapacitycontinuestoexpandGrowth,demandshowsanupwardtrend,butthesupplyofPTAisrelativelysufficient,andinventoryaccumulationwillcontinueinthesecondhalfoftheyear.Ifnewproductioncapacityisaddedinthefourthquarter,domesticPTAproductioncapacitywillreach56.505milliontons,anditisnotruledoutthatthePTAindustrypatternwillreturntoasurplussituation.
NewproductioncapacitydeploymentstatusofdomesticPTAfactories:
Polyester supply and demand: The “burden” of cold production and sales is increasing, and equipment maintenance may bring pressure to the later period
For PTA downstream, the current downstream polyester production and sales are relatively cold. The production and sales rate of polyester filament is 35%, the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber is 20%~30%, and the production and sales rate of polyester chips is 50%~90%. Overall, it is difficult for the downstream sector to drive significant growth in PTA demand.
It is understood that the overall profitability of polyester companies has rebounded significantly. Due to the fall in the price of raw materials such as ethylene glycol, the cost pressure on polyester companies has weakened, while the polyester product market has not fluctuated significantly and profitability has improved. At present, the profit of polyester chip products is 355.9 yuan, the profit of bottle flake products is 80.9 yuan, the profit of polyester filament products is 680.9 yuan, and the profit of polyester staple fiber products is 505.9 yuan.
From the inventory point of view, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, under the influence of cost push, the polyester filament market production and sales increased rapidly, and factory inventories dropped rapidly. Although the subsequent market production and sales were light, the polyester filament industry Inventories remain low. Recently, downstream factories have sufficient stocks of raw materials, and there are no obvious signs of recovery in the end market. Affected by this, it is expected that short-term polyester filament factory inventories may be on an upward trajectory.
From the perspective of operating rate, the load of the early restart device continues to increase, and Tongkun Hengteng’s new device is put into normal operation. The operating rate of polyester filament has increased slightly, while the operating rate of polyester staple fiber has started. Rate remains stable.
Looking at the market outlook, Fujian Jinlun’s polyester plant is scheduled to be overhauled in the near future. It is expected that the comprehensive operating rate of polyester may steadily decline in the short term, and raw material procurement will continue to decrease.
In general, under the current traditional small peak season, PTA spot goods are in a phase of booming supply and demand. In the short term, downstream polyester production remains high, but inventories continue to increase, indicating that PTA supply is sufficient.
With the concentrated release of new PTA production capacity, the supply and demand of PTA in January next year is not optimistic, and production losses will appear again. Therefore, the rising momentum of the 2001 contract is weak, and the spot market is in sync with the weak pattern. . However, if domestic PTA companies’ installations are inspected as planned and supply decreases, there may be room for the market to rebound. </p
