According to customs statistics, my country imported 70,000 tons of cotton in October 2019, a decrease of 12.5% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 36.4%. From January to October 2019, my country imported a total of 1.58 million tons of cotton, a year-on-year increase of 28%.
Compared with August and September (year-on-year decreases were 43.3% and 35.7% respectively), the year-on-year decrease in cotton imports in October did not worsen, but the month-on-month decline was still on the decline (cotton imports in August and September The volumes are 90,000 tons and 83,000 tons respectively). At the same time, Australian cotton imports still account for nearly “half of the country” (including Australian cotton in 2018 and 2019), with the United States, Africa, and Brazil ranking 2-4.
The customs clearance RMB quotation of SM 1-5/32 Australian cotton is higher than that of SM 1-5/32 Brazilian cotton and S-6 1-5/32 Indian cotton (18/19 old cotton) by nearly 2,000 yuan yuan/ton; in 2019, despite the reduction in Australian cotton production and the obvious decline in quality, Australian cotton has still become the first choice for imports by Chinese textile companies and traders. On November 24-25, Qingdao Hong Kong and Macao cotton SM 1-5/32 (GM 1-5/32) strong 29-30GPT net weight quoted 15500-15600 yuan/ton, which is higher than the “Double 29” Xinjiang machine-picked cotton in the mainland warehouse ( Strong 29-30GPT) 1600-1800 yuan/ton.
Why did cotton imports drop in October year-on-year and month-on-month? The opinions of the industry focus on the following points:
First, in October, domestic traders concentrated on low prices and clearance of 2018/19 Xinjiang cotton, and the price difference between 2019/20 new cotton and 2019/20 new cotton widened; High-quality foreign cotton is even lower than the price quoted by traders (mainly compared with the prices of Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton, and West African cotton after customs clearance);
Secondly, there is still a certain amount of reserved commercial cotton and futures in domestic warehouses in October. Warehouse receipts and 2019/20 real estate cotton are available for mainland cotton textile mills to choose from (cotton quality, grade, and spinnability outside the port basically have no advantages);
Third, the Sino-US trade negotiations in October are intertwined with long and short positions. , the direction is difficult to grasp, and textile and clothing exports have been suppressed. According to customs statistics, my country’s textile and clothing exports in October were US$22.868 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 6.74%; among which, the decline in textile and clothing exports to the United States was even more pronounced (U.S. clothing imports from China in September fell by 13.2% in terms of volume);
Fourthly, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated widely in October. The unstable exchange rate made cotton spinning mills and traders relatively cautious in purchasing. On October 31, the spot exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 7.0350 yuan, with a cumulative appreciation of 1,031 points that month, a range of 1.44%, the largest appreciation since February 2019.
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