1PTA maintenance equipment restarts, supply side pressure increases
In October, PTA equipment maintenance increased, resulting in Spot prices are tight in the short term. Since October, in order to hedge against the supply impact caused by the commissioning of Xinfengming’s 2.2 million tons/year PTA device, PTA device maintenance has increased. Among them, the equipment of large plants such as Hengli Petrochemical and Hanbang Petrochemical have started maintenance. Since Xinfengming only opened the 1.1 million tons/year production line after it was put into operation at the end of October, another 1.1 million tons/year production line is planned to be put into operation at the end of November. Therefore, the wave of PTA maintenance since October has not only offset the impact of new production capacity, but also led to a decline in PTA social inventory while the demand for downstream polyester is acceptable. As of November 22, PTA social inventory was 1.297 million tons, a decrease of 2.11% from the previous week and an increase of 69.19% year-on-year. The continued decline in inventories has resulted in a tight spot situation in the near future.
Xinfengming will be commissioned at the end of the month & the equipment of major manufacturers will be restarted one after another, and the tight PTA spot supply will gradually ease. According to the current operating status of PTA equipment, the supply of PTA is expected to gradually increase in the near future. First of all, Hainan Yisheng’s 2 million tons/year PTA unit restarted ahead of schedule on Monday, Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons/year PTA unit restarted on Monday, and Yadong Petrochemical’s 700,000 tons/year PTA unit is scheduled to restart on November 27. , Xinfengming’s 1.1 million tons/year new PTA production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of November. Therefore, with the expectation that the above-mentioned devices will be restarted and put into production, PTA supply is expected to gradually recover, and the tight spot situation will be alleviated.
2 The demand-side polyester device is about to undergo a wave of maintenance
Judging from the Spring Festival maintenance plans announced by some polyester companies this week, polyester is expected to further increase the pressure to reduce and shut down production in mid-to-early December, with larger-scale production cuts and shutdowns occurring in late December and beyond. For example, Fujian Baihong, Jingwei, Xianglu, Jinxing, and Shaoxing’s Tiansheng, Taicang Shenjiu, Changle, Zhenhui, etc. have successively finalized production reduction plans for the Spring Festival, starting from early to mid-December. , starting from early January. Therefore, judging from the trend of polyester load, it is expected to start a slight downward trend in mid-to-early December, and most maintenance should be concentrated in late December or early January.
3 terminal inventory and operating rate
From the trend Look, the downstream operating rate will further decline in mid-to-early December. It is currently understood that some companies with relatively high inventory pressure, especially some water-jet weaving companies with relatively high inventory pressure, plan to first suspend production and take holidays in mid-December. , then the downstream operating rate will drop relatively obviously, and the period from late December to early January will be the peak period of concentrated downstream production shutdowns. A small number of companies with better business and lower inventory will insist on suspending production until early January. .
From the comparison of gray cloth inventory, the current overall level of gray cloth inventory is relatively high. From the structure of gray cloth inventory, it is mainly concentrated in Water-jet weaving enterprises, warp knitting and circular knitting machines are still good. It is also true that orders for Double Eleven and Christmas are less than last year. Since the Chinese New Year is celebrated early this year, companies with large inventories will most likely still focus on destocking, and they will also be cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the Chinese New Year holiday will most likely be brought forward. As for segmentation, the sales volume of conventional varieties has not been very good this year. For example, pongee polyester taffeta, orders have been basically declining. The differentiated varieties from the previous T400 to the fabrics produced for winter clothing are indeed pretty good. This is also the main reason why the inventory of gray fabrics has declined slightly some time ago.
According to the information obtained from the research in various regions
✦The inventory pressure in Shengze region is still relatively high, and the overall order situation is average. Differentiated brands are relatively popular, and the startup load has weakened.
✦Haining area has seen more inventory destocking, mainly because the production volume is better, there are more orders, and the startup load is relatively stable.
✦The inventory pressure in Shaoxing is still high, with fewer orders compared with other regions, and the startup load has weakened.
✦Inventory in Changshu area has been reduced slightly compared with before, but the orders that can be received are only in early December, and the start-up load has weakened.
4 Summary
For some time in the future, polyester prices may remain weak and fluctuate, and some may continue to fluctuate. Discounted shipping. However, if the first phase of the China-U.S. trade agreement is successfully signed, coupled with the intensive purchasing and replenishment at the end of the year, it may also trigger a wave of bargain-hunting, but the overall intensity is expected to be limited. </p
