Since March 2018, the trade friction between China and the United States has continued to this day. How far has it developed?
The following are the latest news in recent months:
On September 12, 2019, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said, The economic and trade teams of China and the United States have been maintaining effective communication. According to the agreement between the leaders of the two sides during the phone call last week, the working levels of the two sides will meet in the near future to conduct serious consultations and fully prepare for the next step of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States. Regarding the resumption of imports of agricultural products from the United States, Chinese companies have begun to make inquiries about purchasing U.S. agricultural products, and soybeans and pork are included in the inquiry.
On September 25, 2019, the United States announced three exclusion lists for China’s additional tariffs, involving more than 400 products. China supports relevant companies to continue to purchase a certain amount of agricultural products such as soybeans, pork and products from the United States in accordance with market-oriented principles and WTO rules. The Tariff Commission of the State Council will continue to exclude the above-mentioned purchases from additional tariffs.
On October 12, 2019 (Friday afternoon, local time), Trump stated at the White House that the U.S.-China economic and trade consultations have achieved substantial first-stage results, and the United States will Suspension of additional tariffs on China on the 15th next week. Liu He said that during this round of consultations, the two sides had candid, efficient and constructive discussions on economic and trade issues of common concern, including agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rates, financial services, expanded trade cooperation, technology transfer, dispute settlement and other fields. Substantial progress was made and arrangements for follow-up consultations were discussed.
On November 7, 2019, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said that if China and the United States reach a first-phase agreement, the additional taxes should be canceled simultaneously and at equal rates based on the content of the agreement. Tariffs are an important condition for reaching an agreement.
December 15th is the deadline for the United States to impose a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods. Seeing that this critical day is coming, the market sentiment is relatively nervous, and now there are Big news breaks. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. tariff plan originally scheduled for December 15 may be postponed. Stimulated by this factor, European stock markets, which had plummeted, stabilized and rebounded. U.S. stock futures also quickly turned red, and the panic index once plunged.
Looking back at this week, there are indeed many major events. The interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the British election, Sino-US trade and many other major events have hit one after another. So the recent market How is the performance?
1. The overall stable fluctuation of cotton prices
Recently, the storage of cotton reserves has brought benefits to the market, and Xinjiang manufacturers have bid for storage. , but because it is the peak season for cotton listings, the spot price does not fluctuate much. The purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang remains stable. The current purchase price of hand-picked cotton with a lichen content of 42% and a moisture regain of 10% in Aksu and Kashgar in southern Xinjiang is 6.20 yuan/kg, which is basically the same as the previous week; the price of seed cotton with a lichen content of 38% is at 5.7 yuan/kg; the price of seed cotton in the mainland has been adjusted at 2.5-3.0 yuan/catties. Many manufacturers said that the quality of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang has declined significantly, especially the impurity content of machine-picked cotton. On December 12, domestic cotton 3128B was quoted at 13,100 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; Zheng cotton’s main CF005 closing price was 13,325 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day.
However, the December global cotton supply and demand forecast report recently released by the US Department of Agriculture has been lowered Global production, consumption and ending stocks. In the report, global production was reduced by 180,000 tons to 26.37 million tons, mainly involving the United States, India, Pakistan and other countries; global consumption was reduced by 270,000 tons to 26.19 million tons, mainly by China by 220,000 tons; global ending stocks were reduced by 110,000 tons to 17.49 million tons, of which the countries involved in the upward adjustment are China and Brazil, and the countries involved in the downward adjustment are India and the United States. Comparing the data in the report, it can be easily seen that the data is positive for the global market, but negative for the Chinese market. The most obvious one is the decline in China’s consumption volume. As a result, Zheng cotton prices still have the risk of falling back in the short term.
2. The price of pure cotton yarn has fallen
Recently, the overall downstream market has been weak and goods are not flowing smoothly, especially the financial pressure before the year. The price of gray fabrics of some manufacturers has increased, which has affected the upstream yarn market. Affected by inventory pressure, some manufacturers have tried to lower prices to attract orders. A factory in Shandong quoted 21S high-quality pure cotton yarn for knitting at 19,200 yuan/ton, and 32S high-quality pure cotton yarn for knitting was currently quoted at 20,400 yuan/ton, which was a price drop from the previous week. 300 yuan/ton, combed series can be discounted by 300 yuan/ton. It is understood that about 30% of factories have early holiday plans this year. In addition to the Spring Festival being moved to January this year, the more important reason is that there are few orders and it is difficult for textile companies to maintain normal production. On December 12, the average price of C32S in the spot market was 20,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day.
3. The phenomenon of stocking up rayon yarn with sticky shorts and silence has increased
At present, viscose staple fiber is relatively quiet and the atmosphere is light. Upstream pulp factories are struggling to survive due to losses. Downstream gauze factories are seeing lower prices due to fewer orders. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers continue to lose money. It is very difficult to clear inventory at low prices. , the entire industry chain is full of negative news. The current price of mid-range viscose staple fiber is 9,900-10,000 yuan/ton, and the high-end price is 10,100-10,200 yuan/ton. With the price of rayon yarn falling,The phenomenon of periodic stocking up by domestic weaving manufacturers has increased, and the market is optimistic about the short-term outlook for mid- to high-end fabrics. On December 12, the spot price of 30S rayon yarn was 14,910 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day.
4. The price of polyester shorts increased slightly and the overall stability of pure polyester yarn was maintained
Recently, most of the quotations of polyester staple fiber manufacturers have remained stable, with some rising slightly, and the trading atmosphere is average. The mainstream quotation of 1.4D in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 6800-6950 yuan/ton, and the actual order may be 6700-6800 yuan/ton; the price of polyester staple fiber in Fujian remains stable, and the quotation of 1.4D direct spinning is about 6900 yuan/ton for short-distance delivery. Negotiation may be at 6800 -6850 yuan/ton; Shandong and Hebei polyester staple fibers continue to adjust, and the trading atmosphere is not good. 1.4D semi-gloss is in negotiation or around 6700-6800 yuan/ton, and real orders are shipped at discounted prices. From the demand side, most professionals in the market have a bearish attitude at this time, and the demand for pure polyester yarn will further decline in the future. However, from a cost perspective, polyester staple fiber may fluctuate in the short term under a loss-making situation. In addition, the processing fees for pure polyester yarn are at a low level at this stage, which limits the profit margins of textile companies. Therefore, it is expected that pure polyester yarn will continue to maintain stability in the short term. . On December 12, the spot price of pure polyester yarn 32S was 11,290 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day.
To sum up, the current market has entered the off-season of the textile industry chain. Overall, the downstream Winter orders are coming to an end. If there is a lack of subsequent spring orders, the weak downstream demand will continue, and the pressure on the cotton and yarn markets will still exist. At present, the market is generally paying attention to the results of the recent Sino-US negotiations, and hopes that the implementation of the first phase of the agreement will bring a little warmth to the market.
One final word: Heavy market information is coming one after another. In the face of the pressure of impeachment, can this “special” be reliable?
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