In December, the sale of seed cotton in Xinjiang has entered its final stage, and the true output of Xinjiang cotton in 2019/20 has gradually emerged. A report released by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System shows that the total national cotton output in 2019 is expected to be 5.843 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%; of which the total output of Xinjiang cotton areas is 4.974 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; Xinjiang cotton output accounts for 15% of the national total output 85.13%.
There are two other data worthy of attention: First, as of December 10, Xinjiang has processed a total of 3.965 million tons of lint cotton (including a total of 2.499 million tons of local processing and a cumulative processing volume of 1.466 million tons by the Xinjiang Corps), which is more than It increased by 1.8% in the same period last year; second, as of December 11, the Xinjiang cotton area has notarized a total of 3.4918 million tons of cotton in 2019, an increase of about 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. In 2019, the harvest and launch period of southern Xinjiang seed cotton were 5-7 days later than in 2018, and the total output of Xinjiang cotton areas was expected to decline year-on-year. The cumulative processing volume and cumulative public inspection volume this year actually exceeded the same period in 2018. Therefore, the author believes that the early calculations of unit yield and total output were biased, and the production reduction was exaggerated by the market.
From the current point of view, Xinjiang’s processing volume and public inspection volume have increased year-on-year, but this does not change the expectation that total output will decline by about 3% in 2019/20. With the rapid growth of machine-picked cotton planting area, the harvest period of Xinjiang seed cotton is more concentrated and the acquisition period is shorter. Although the launch of Xinjiang seed cotton this year has been slightly delayed (mainly hand-picked cotton), the machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang began to grow explosively in mid-October, and cotton processing companies went all out to grab the harvest (the purchase price of 40% machine-picked seed cotton once rose to 5.7-5.8 yuan/kg).
In addition, from December to January, the daily processing volume and storage volume of Xinjiang lint cotton were lower than the same period in 2018/19. Judging from the survey, the acquisition work in most cotton areas in northern Xinjiang has been completed in late November. The purchase volume of cotton enterprises in southern Xinjiang has also declined rapidly. It is expected that the sale of seed cotton will be basically completed in late December, which will be completed about a week earlier than the same period in 2017 and 2018. In addition, in the past two years, not only has the proportion of machine-picked cotton equipment in Xinjiang increased significantly, but the supporting equipment for machine-picked cotton processing has become more and more advanced and efficient (such as automatic flower feeding, dust removal and drying, three-strand removal, etc.), and ginners are increasingly The processing capacity has also been significantly improved. </p
