The public health incident has continued to this day and has had a profound impact on the polyester industry. Although preparations for resumption of work have begun in mid-February, the actual resumption of work has been slow, and the short-term market may remain in a stalemate.
Before the Spring Festival, the domestic polyester industry started operating at 71.3%, which was lower than the same period last year. However, the downstream weaving, printing and dyeing industries have stopped one after another since January 10. After the middle of the month, the polyester market has shown signs of accumulation. However, inventory levels are still within a controllable range. Taking polyester filament as an example, POY inventory is around a week, FDY inventory is basically more than ten days, and other varieties, such as polyester chips and polyester staple fiber inventories are at low levels. However, this year’s polyester inventory is at a low level. The overall inventory of the ester industry is much higher than the same period last year.
Under the influence of public health incidents, except for a few medical-related industries that have resumed work after the Spring Festival, other companies are on vacation. To avoid risks, companies continue to expand the scale of maintenance and industry operations continue Downgraded, the polyester industry dropped to around 68%. In the first trading week after the holiday, most polyester sales staff work remotely, while most polyester factory operators are migrant workers who are delayed in arriving at work, which has a certain impact on the operation of the company’s equipment.
In addition, other reasons include the lack of auxiliary materials, such as wooden frames, foam boards, cartons, etc., inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, logistics restrictions due to road closures, delayed resumption of downstream weaving operations affecting demand, and industry concerns about Bearish expectations for the market outlook are all reasons for the decline in industry starts.
In terms of polyester filament, enterprises have expanded their maintenance efforts after the Spring Festival, and the equipment that was originally planned to restart after the Spring Festival has been repeatedly postponed. In terms of polyester staple fiber, the holiday production suspension involves a total of 2.65 million tons of production capacity. Among them, a set of Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s approximately 250,000 tons/year device is a new production reduction device after the holiday, while the remaining companies that plan to restart at the end of January are spinning off yarn due to the special period. Labor-intensive industries such as cloth and fabrics have been postponed to February 3 to 13 due to the extended holiday and poor logistics in many places.
Due to the impact of the special period, the restart time of some enterprises has been delayed, and some enterprises are still making additional production cuts. The lost production capacity after the holiday is expected to increase by 400,000 tons, reaching 2.8 million tons, and the lost production capacity will increase by 17.39% compared with the pre-holiday period. . In terms of polyester bottle flakes, some manufacturers have reduced production, and the operating hours have dropped slightly to 73.55%. After the holiday, working hours in most areas have also been postponed accordingly.
Except for areas with severe epidemics, most of the resumption time announced by various regions is no earlier than February 10. However, the actual situation is that in order to ease inventory pressure, various polyester varieties continue to expand the scale of production cuts. The second time after the holiday During the trading week, domestic polyester production starts dropped to 59.14%, among which polyester filament production starts dropped significantly, from 72.44% to 60.89%.
Downstream texturing and weaving companies are expected to postpone their resumption of work until the end of February. In March, the industry will be able to return to normal levels and demand will gradually increase. Although various places have introduced measures to resume work, they require non-local personnel to undergo at least a 14-day quarantine period, and the costs during the quarantine period are relatively high, which need to be borne by the personnel and enterprises themselves. Therefore, even if they are approved, the situation of enterprises resuming work is still low. It is understood that the Fujian region resumed work relatively early. Among them, the Changle region started driving in early February. However, it is still difficult to return to work manually, so the industry’s operating rate is not high.
In order to stabilize economic development, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have recently introduced measures to resume work. In order to allow migrant workers to return to the city quickly, Hangzhou announced:
