With the epidemic under control, the resumption of work by enterprises in late February will be the new focus of governments at all levels. The PTA industry chain is also ready for everything except demand.
Terminal textile factories began to resume work in late February. However, since returning workers need to be quarantined for a certain period of time and related supporting facilities have yet to be restored, Zhongyu Information speculates that the start-up of textile factories will be slow and the textile market may not fully recover until the end of February. to early March. The epidemic has caused the market to be closed for a long time during the Spring Festival, especially physical stores. As a result, clothing companies and dealers have missed part of the spring clothing market. The squeeze on spring clothing inventory will affect the capital turnover of companies in the later period. Clothing companies will start producing summer clothing from February to March. After missing the spring clothing market, clothing companies will face increased pressure on funds and spring clothing inventory, which will affect clothing companies’ purchase demand for summer clothing fabrics and is not conducive to the destocking of gray fabrics in textile factories. Before the Spring Festival, the inventory of gray fabrics in the Shengze area was at a high of about 40 days. As the number of new confirmed cases of the epidemic continues to decline, the market will gradually regain popularity, and the demand for the industrial chain will gradually begin to recover. However, Zhongyu Information expects to miss out on the textile and apparel market for spring clothing. The market will be a little tougher than in previous years.
As of February 20, the operating load of domestic PTA was around 82.1%, and the social inventory of domestic PTA was around 2.45-2.5 million tons. The pressure of PTA surplus is relatively high. A total of 4.6 million tons/year PTA units are planned to be restarted in late February: Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons/year, Sichuan Shengda’s 1 million tons/year units are scheduled to restart around February 20, and Reignwood Petrochemical’s 1.4 million tons/year. The annual installation is scheduled to restart at the end of February. The overall operating load of domestic PTA is relatively high, and large PTA manufacturers have limited efforts to reduce production. PTA will continue to accumulate inventory in late February.
In late February, the overall polyester inventory was relatively high, and the polyester start-up load was around 63%. Under the pressure of destocking, the start-up load of polyester factories will not rebound quickly. It is speculated that the start-up load of polyester in late February may be Around 65%-70%. Excluding maintenance and production reduction of PTA production capacity, based on the domestic 44.9 million tons/year operating PTA unit after the restart of Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons/year PTA unit, the PTA output is estimated to be 123,000 tons/day, and based on the start-up load of the downstream polyester factory in late February When it rises to 65%-70%, it is estimated that the demand for PTA is about 90,000-97,000 tons/day, and theoretically there is still a surplus of 26,000-33,000 tons/day of PTA.
Zhongyu Information believes that PTA and polyester inventories will continue to rise in late February, waiting for a rebound in demand to boost market confidence, and also hopes that major PTA manufacturers will reduce production to support the market. The impact of the epidemic on the economy will gradually appear. You and I are all in this disaster. We hope that the epidemic will pass as soon as possible. </p
