Overseas epidemics are worrying, and the trade war between the United States and Europe has revived… During the Dragon Boat Festival that just passed, heavy news came out one after another in the external market, which had a great impact on the financial market. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell. Many stock indexes in Europe also performed sluggishly; in the commodity market, most varieties were weak, with international oil prices falling by more than 5%; currency and interest rate markets were also highly volatile. Against this background, what changes will happen to the domestic market on the first day of trading after the holiday? How should investors plan their plans?
Global The epidemic is severe, and crude oil leads the decline in financial markets
In the first half of 2020, the development of the new coronavirus epidemic was the biggest uncertainty at the macro level. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, there were rumors in the market News about the rebound of the epidemic in the United States and other countries.
The news of the resurgence of the epidemic has had a big impact on the financial market. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, international oil prices led the decline in the financial market, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both falling by more than 5%.
In this regard, Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, said that OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical turbulence have supported oil prices. But a weak economy and fragile market confidence are dragging down oil prices. “Not surprisingly, crude oil will drive the energy sector to weaken after the market opens on Monday.”
As the macro situation becomes increasingly severe, the United States launched reforms related to financial markets last week Measures: On June 25, local time in the United States, the Federal Reserve voted 4:1 to approve changes to the Volcker Rule, which will take effect on October 1. It is understood that the changes to the Volcker Rule will allow banks to increase investment in venture capital funds and so on. At the same time, U.S. regulators also eliminated the requirement for banks to hold margin when trading derivatives with affiliated institutions, which is expected to release $40 billion in funds.
“Judging from the current overall market atmosphere, the impact of overseas epidemics is still the most important negative factor facing the current market, and forced resumption of work is very risky.” Yang An believes that, It can be seen from the fact that many places in the United States are currently forced to stop or postpone economic restarts. The key to supporting the financial market to stop falling and recover is to work on epidemic control and guide investors to restore confidence, so that the economy can embark on the path of healthy recovery.
“From the perspective of trading opportunities, the crude oil market has begun a correction, and oil prices are likely to continue to fall in the short term, and this is also a key factor affecting the energy sector in the near future.” In his words It seems that since the current oil price is still at a historical low, every time the oil price falls, it will bring low-level long-selling opportunities due to underestimation. Investors are advised to pay close attention. If the market is suppressed by the epidemic panic, the market may reappear strategically. Buying opportunity on dips.
The trade dispute between Europe and the United States has escalated, and futures index trends should be viewed with caution
Except The recurrence of global epidemics and the escalation of trade disputes between Europe and the United States are also the focus of investors’ attention. According to CCTV News Client, the U.S. government is considering imposing tariffs on $3.1 billion in goods imported from the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany and France, paving the way for a new round of trade confrontation with Europe. An announcement issued by the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office on the evening of June 23, local time, stated that the list includes aircraft, yogurt, frozen ham, olives, beer, gin and many other products. The announcement stated that the one-month public comment period will end on July 26, at which time tariffs may be imposed.
Under the combined influence of the news, European and American stock markets fell across the board during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell more than 4%, and the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index fell nearly 4%. %, the German DAX30 index fell more than 3%, the British FTSE 100 index and the French CAC40 index fell more than 2%.
In addition to the stock index, the currency market also experienced slight fluctuations. Among them, the pound fell by more than 1% against the US dollar, the euro fell by nearly 1% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell by nearly 1%. The offshore yuan edged up 0.42%.
As for the expected trend of the domestic futures index after the holidays, Yan Xingyue, a macro researcher at Shanghai Medium-Term Futures Stock Index, believes that the above-mentioned events have led to an increase in market risk aversion and risk assets have been hit again. It is necessary to Pay attention to the short-term impact of overseas risk events on the domestic stock market. In terms of operations, you need to remain cautious about futures.
Specifically, she said that first of all, the current spot index valuations corresponding to the three major futures indexes have basically deviated from the historical lows of the previous period, and beware of valuation changes under external shocks. Secondly, the recurrence of the epidemic in the United States may delay the economic recovery time; finally, we need to pay attention to whether the escalation of trade friction between Europe and the United States will intensify the Sino-US trade dispute.
“In addition to the above three risk factors, we must also pay attention to changes in domestic economic fundamentals and policies.” Yan Xingyue believes that the current economic fundamentals are in the repair stage, and policies The overall tone is relatively positive, and liquidityThe relative abundance of funds also provides certain support for the index.
Precious metals are not volatile, and there is still hope for a rise in the market outlook
Holidays On the last trading day before, the domestic precious metals sector as a whole rose slightly. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, although the external stock market fell sharply, the overall fluctuations of precious metals were not large. COMEX gold fell slightly by 0.15% during the period, and COMEX silver fell by nearly 1%.
In this regard, Wang Jun, senior analyst of Minmetals Economic Futures, said that the closing prices of international gold and silver were basically the same as before the holidays, but were affected by Affected by the depreciation of the RMB, it is expected that Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver will mainly rise slightly after the market opens on Monday.
In his view, the above-mentioned multiple risk events have increased market risk aversion, coupled with factors such as the significantly lower U.S. bond yields, all of which have provided a favorable environment for the overall rise of the precious metal sector. , it is expected that the trading logic of the entire precious metal sector in the future will still revolve around the two keywords of risk aversion and deflation.
Huang Zhiming, a color researcher at Jinrui Futures Research Institute, also said that the rebound of the epidemic in the United States has caused market concerns, and gold ETF holdings have risen sharply again, indicating that the market’s demand for gold as a safe haven is rising. U.S. stocks have recently Performance began to weaken, and safe-haven funds drove short-term gold prices to strengthen further.
In addition, he also said that the current price trends of copper and U.S. stocks have begun to diverge. The U.S. stock market has begun to correct but copper prices are still rising, indicating that copper prices are not driven by major assets in the near future. The current fundamentals have a great influence on copper prices.
Looking ahead to the market outlook, Huang Zhiming believes that although the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has shrunk slightly, the quantitative easing policy continues, which will support the price of gold in the long term. In addition, in the face of The rebound of the epidemic has increased the risk of a correction in U.S. stocks, which is conducive to safe-haven funds increasing their holdings of precious metals. “For basic metals, they generally benefited from the rise brought about by the rebound of major asset classes in the early stage. At present, the trends of various varieties have begun to diverge, and the consistent benefits of continuing to rely on macro-stimulus are gradually weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to copper and aluminum, which have stronger fundamentals. ”
“Under the current background of extremely loose global currency, deflation is difficult to achieve, and the overall trend of gold and silver is still easy to rise but difficult to fall.” Wang Jun suggested that gold and silver will be able to meet each other in the future. Mainly buy low and go long with the trend, focusing on macro events such as the US epidemic, Sino-US relations, and the US election.
The black sector focuses on the negative impact of external factors
The last one before the holidays On the trading day, the trends of the black plate varieties were somewhat differentiated. Among them, iron ore rose by more than 2%, while finished products and bifocals oscillated within a narrow range.
“The performance of iron ore before the holidays was relatively strong, mainly because the blast furnace operating rate increased again in the week before the holidays, the average daily hot metal production hit a record high, and the weekly thread production also hit a record A new high. The average weekly volume of iron ore discharged from the port last week reached 3.19 million tons, which is also a new high. It confirms that the current demand for iron ore is relatively rigid and has a strong boost to the iron ore price trend.” Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, said , relatively speaking, the output of the finished product market increased significantly last week, the transaction performance was weak, and the inventory turned from falling to rising. Among them, rebar inventory increased significantly by 325,100 tons, and hot coil inventory increased by 15,700 tons.
As for the impact of external factors on the black sector during the holidays, he said that with the spread of overseas epidemics, European and American stock markets and crude oil generally fell sharply, which will have a certain negative impact on the trend of black commodities. Influence. “The finished product data released before the holidays was poor, with output rising again, inventory accumulation accelerating, and table demand falling sharply. After the holidays, the trend of finished products may face certain adjustment pressure. Iron ore port inventories have turned from falling to rising, and port pressure has increased significantly. , indicating that the tightest stage of iron ore supply may have passed, and high iron ore prices are also facing adjustments. In terms of coke, inventories have continued to decline recently, and coking companies in Xuzhou stopped production on June 30. There are still issues on the coke supply side, but currently Coking profits have been significantly higher than those of threads. With the trend of threads under pressure, steel mills are less accepting of raw material prices, and coke is expected to consolidate at a high level.”
Looking forward to the short- and medium-term trends , Qiu Yuecheng believes that since June, the demand for rebar has dropped significantly. At the same time, steel mills are highly motivated to produce. The blast furnace operating rate, electric furnace operating rate and weekly thread output are all at historically high levels. The supply side is specifically rigid, combined with supply and demand. In the current situation, rebar shows signs of weakening.
“However, the recent macroeconomic level has continued to release loose information, and the current market is still generally expected that the central bank will further cut interest rates. The increased issuance of local bonds will increase the overall market demand, coupled with high costs. , the support below the thread price is also strong, and the overall situation is in a situation of pressure for rising and support for falling.” He said that it is expected that the short-term finished product market will still be dominated by repeated oscillations, and in the medium term, attention will be paid to the performance of thread demand after the end of the rainy season.
From the perspective of iron ore, Qiu Yuecheng said that with the reduction of berth maintenance and the impact of end-of-quarter surge in the later period, shipping volume is expected to further increase. “The inventory is still at a low level, but in the near future, the pressure on the port and the floating resources in the sea have increased significantly, and the port inventory will gradually transfer to the accumulation stage. It is expected that iron ore will be difficult to continue its outstanding performance in the early stage, and will face certain adjustment pressure in the short term. In the medium term, we will focus on finished products. Changes in prices and profits.”
In the medium term, we will pay attention to changes in finished product prices and profits. ”</p
