Since 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread globally, and the world economy is facing the biggest challenge since the Great Depression. The characteristics of the century-old changes in the world have been continuously intensified, and the development of the textile industry is facing an extremely complex situation. Against the background of sluggish global production and consumption and the near-stop of international trade, the production and operation of the filament weaving industry continued to be under pressure in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, as domestic epidemic prevention and control became normalized, GDP turned from negative to positive, textile terminal demand recovered slightly, and some operating indicators of the filament weaving industry showed signs of recovery. At present, the “aftershocks” of the impact of the epidemic are still there, entrepreneurs’ confidence in investment and development is obviously insufficient, the industry’s negative growth trend has not yet been reversed, and maintaining stable operation throughout the year faces greater challenges.
1. Production decline narrowed
According to statistics from each cluster area, in the first half of 2020, eight chemical fiber growers were Shengze, Xiuzhou, Longhu, Siyang, Pingwang, Qidu, Keqiao, and Dafeng Xiaohai. The cumulative output of silk fabrics was 10.668 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.17%, and the decline narrowed by 9.45 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Looking at the overall situation of the industry, Siyang performed outstandingly, especially its growth in the second quarter, which bucked the trend. In the first half of the year, output increased by nearly 20% year-on-year. It is understood that the increase in Siyang Cluster’s chemical fiber filament fabric production is due to the fact that new factories have been put into operation in recent years. In addition, the products are mainly home textile fabrics, which have been less affected by the epidemic. In the post-epidemic era, home textile terminals have shown a certain degree of resilience compared to clothing terminals. Qidu, which also mainly produces home textile fabrics, also saw a slight increase in output.
Table 1 Production table of chemical fiber filament fabrics in China’s main filament weaving industry clusters from January to June 2020
Data source: various industrial clusters
2. Industry operation pressure is high
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According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the main business income of China’s textile industry above designated size fell by 16.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 8.97 percentage points narrower than the first quarter. In terms of industries, the operating income of my country’s regulated chemical fiber weaving and printing and dyeing finishing industries fell by 16.19% year-on-year, and the decline was 9.42 percentage points narrower than the first quarter; among them, chemical fiber weaving fell by 15.85% year-on-year, and the decline was 9.61 percentage points narrower than the first quarter. ; The chemical fiber dyeing, finishing and finishing industry fell by 17.72% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 8.61 percentage points compared with the first quarter.
From the perspective of profitability, the total profit of my country’s regulated textile industry in the first half of the year fell by 19.01% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 3.8%. In terms of industries, the total profit of my country’s regulated chemical fiber weaving and printing and dyeing finishing industries fell by 48.79% year-on-year, a decrease of 27.06 percentage points narrower than the first quarter; the profit margin was 2.12%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, the total profit of chemical fiber weaving decreased by 40.85% year-on-year, a decrease of 22.3 percentage points narrowed from the first quarter, and the profit margin was 2.2%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points from the first quarter; the total profit of the chemical fiber dyeing, finishing and finishing industry decreased by 52.54 percentage points. Under the premise, it still dropped 70.99% year-on-year, and the profit margin turned from negative to positive, reaching 1.75%. Affected by the epidemic, terminal demand has shrunk, and the operating pressure of enterprises has moved up the industrial chain. The efficiency of my country’s filament weaving industry has declined significantly, and there is great pressure to improve the quality and efficiency of the industry.
Table 2 Summary of main economic indicators of China’s chemical fiber filament weaving and processing industry from January to June 2020 (above scale)
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
3. The international market situation is grim
According to China Customs data, in the first half of the year, China’s textile and apparel exports amounted to US$130.803 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, achieving the first export growth rate from negative to positive since 2020. Due to the severe situation of international epidemic prevention and control, my country’s export of masks and other anti-epidemic materials to Europe, the United States and other countries has expanded, driving a substantial increase in textile exports, with a growth rate of 24.79%, reaching 77.159 billion US dollars, accounting for 59% of the total textile and apparel exports. ; The pressure on apparel exports remains prominent, with the cumulative export volume in the first half of the year reaching US$53.644 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.42%. In 2020, the world is experiencing various impacts brought by the COVID-19 epidemic. The international market is under great pressure to fight the epidemic. Demand in the traditional textile market has plummeted. Anti-epidemic materials have driven the rapid growth of textile exports. However, affected by the reduction in external demand, clothing exports have continued to decline. The decline in June was significantly narrower than that in April and May, showing signs of recovery.
(1) The outlet pressure of filament fabrics increases
2020 On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization announced that the Covid-19 epidemic had constituted a global pandemic. Prevention and control measures in various countries have gradually strengthened. Business in major overseas markets has almost come to a standstill. Market demand has plummeted, and export orders are facing disruption. Issues such as cancellation, extension, rejection, etc. Due to the lagging nature of export trade, the damage to my country’s filament fabric exports was more obvious in the second quarter.
According to China Customs data, in the first half of 2020, my country’s total exports of chemical fiber filament fabrics were US$5.239 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.31%, and the decline expanded by 11.97 percentage points from the first quarter; from In terms of export volume, my country’s chemical fiber filament exports totaled 6.046 billion meters in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 26.49 percentage points, which was the main factor driving down the decline in export volume.
In terms of product categories,The industry must understand it from the perspective of a protracted war and actively adapt to the new development pattern in which the domestic cycle is the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other.
From the perspective of domestic demand, due to the bleak spring clothing sales caused by the epidemic, it may be transferred to the autumn. It is expected that the autumn and winter orders in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 will have a limited impact on the demand side of textiles, and there may be a peak season of gold, silver and ten. The situation is booming, so entrepreneurs are generally cautious about sales expectations in the second half of the year. A questionnaire survey was conducted on key companies in the filament weaving industry. The results showed that more than 80% of the companies surveyed said that sales revenue in the second half of 2020 is expected to decrease year-on-year. 43% of companies said they expected a year-on-year decline of less than 20%, and 25% said that in the future It is not optimistic. It is expected that revenue will be severely damaged, with a year-on-year drop of more than 50%; 14% of companies said they will not be affected, and will be basically the same as last year or increase slightly.
Although the export of prevention and control materials has driven the growth rate of textile exports from negative to positive, clothing is an “optional consumer goods”. The epidemic has caused the greatest impact on the global economic downturn. It is difficult to place foreign trade orders and exports are still under pressure. . Entrepreneurs generally believe that the export situation in the second half of the year is not optimistic. The questionnaire survey shows that 82% of the companies surveyed believe that exports will decrease year-on-year in the second half of 2020, of which 18% believe that the decline will be within 20%, and 32% believe that the decline will exceed 50%. The foreign trade environment is severe, and entrepreneurs Generally more cautious.
The impact of this epidemic on the entire industry cannot be ignored, but to some extent, the epidemic is also an opportunity to accelerate the reshuffle of the industry. Before the epidemic, the quality of filament weaving enterprises was uneven, with a mixed bag of good and bad, family workshops and extensive production management. After the epidemic, companies with poor finances and poor operations may go bankrupt, accelerating the metabolism within the industry. After cleaning, activities The companies that succeed may even gain a larger market share, and the development quality of the entire filament weaving industry will rise to a higher level. In the post-epidemic era, filament weaving companies need to focus on the recovery of terminal demand, raw material price fluctuations and the introduction of national policies, prudently produce, reasonably control inventory, and pay attention to preventing the risk of capital rupture. It is recommended that filament weaving enterprises focus on product development and innovation this year, increase the research and development and production of differentiated, functional and other mid-to-high-end products, and be fully prepared for the “spring”.
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