Vaccine progress affects financial markets. In the early morning of November 11, Beijing time, Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that Pfizer’s drug for COVID-19 may receive emergency use authorization (EUA) in about a week before being fully approved.
In addition, there is also major news about drugs to treat COVID-19. According to CCTV News, in addition to the COVID-19 vaccine, Academician Chen Wei also led the team to develop new drugs, stepping up the development of monoclonal antibody drugs for the specific treatment of COVID-19 infection, and new biological drugs to improve the degree of pulmonary fibrosis in patients who have recovered from COVID-19, striving to enter clinical trials as soon as possible. .
The API report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 5.147 million barrels last week to 482 million barrels. Saudi Arabia and Iraq confirmed their adherence to the OPEC+ oil production reduction agreement, and international oil prices continued to rise sharply. However, the EIA lowered its crude oil demand forecast for 2021. It is expected that U.S. crude oil production will continue to decline in 2021, restraining the increase in oil prices.
It is worth noting that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for the US soybean harvest and raised its demand forecast in its just-released monthly report, both exceeding market expectations. CBOT soybean futures hit a four-year high.
As of early morning closing today, the US S&P 500 index fell 0.14%, the European Stoxx50 index rose 1.22%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.06%, WTI crude oil rose 4.92%, Brent crude oil rose 4.69%, and Lun copper rose 0.34 %, gold rose 0.74%, U.S. soybeans rose 3.27%, U.S. soybean meal rose 2.81%, U.S. soybean oil rose 1.63%, U.S. sugar fell 1.28%, and U.S. cotton fell 0.20%. The CRB index rose 1.52% and the BDI index fell 0.58%.
Vaccine progress affects financial markets
In the early morning of November 11, Beijing time, Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that Pfizer’s drug for COVID-19 may receive emergency use authorization in about a week before being fully approved ( EUA).
In addition, there is also major news about drugs to treat the new coronavirus. According to CCTV News, in addition to the COVID-19 vaccine, Academician Chen Wei also led the team to develop new drugs, stepping up the development of monoclonal antibody drugs for the specific treatment of COVID-19 infection, and new biological drugs to improve the degree of pulmonary fibrosis in patients who have recovered from COVID-19, striving to enter clinical trials as soon as possible. .
At the same time, according to Reuters, on the 9th local time, the U.S. regulatory agency approved the first experimental antibody drug against COVID-19, which is mainly used for patients who have not yet been hospitalized but are due to age. or other factors that put patients at risk for serious disease. The drug comes from Eli Lilly and Company. During Trump’s illness, Eli Lilly and Company’s management once stated that the vaccine cannot be used to stop COVID-19 alone, and therapeutic drugs are also important.
It is worth mentioning that in the early morning of November 11, the Federal Reserve warned that if the economic impact of the new coronavirus epidemic worsens in the coming months, major market asset prices may still suffer a blow. Fed official Kaplan said the trend in the next two quarters may be that the recovery is too bad and banks are forced to close. In addition, he said that expanding investment in child care, education and infrastructure will help the economy, and the Federal Reserve is coordinating with the Treasury Department to administer emergency lending facilities.
Biden: Trump’s failure to acknowledge the prediction results will not affect the transition work
On November 9, local time, Biden delivered a speech in Delaware During his speech, he called on people to wear masks, saying that until a vaccine is produced, wearing a mask is still the “most powerful weapon” to fight the new crown epidemic and is not a political statement.
Biden said: “If everyone wears a mask in the next few months, we can save thousands of lives. Not Democratic or Republican lives, but American lives.” “I I beg you to wear a mask. For yourselves and for your neighbors. Wearing a mask is not a political statement, it unites the country.”
On November 10, Biden said that there is nothing Being able to prevent the transfer of power in the U.S. government, the Trump administration’s lack of cooperation “will not change what we can do at all.” Biden said: “Frankly, we don’t see anything that will slow us down.” And added that “there is only one president.”
Cyclical stocks rotated, and the Nasdaq fell more than 1%
On Tuesday, it led the market higher during the epidemic Technology stocks continued to be sold off, and economic restart concept stocks performed relatively well. Of the three major U.S. stock indexes, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher, and the Nasdaq fell more than 1%. As of early morning closing today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 262.95 points, or 0.90%, to 29420.92 points; the Nasdaq fell 159.93 points, or 1.37%, to 11553.86 points; the S&P 500 fell 4.97 points, or 0.14%, to 3545.53 points.
Terry Sandven, chief stock market strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said that the market’s sector rotation seems to continue until the end of the year. In the long term, we still favor the technology, consumer discretionary and communication services sectors… But in the near term Within, as the economic outlook improves, we believe that cyclical sectors will outperform the broader market.
Yide Futures stock index researcher Chen Chang said that the rise in U.S. stocks on Monday night was mainly due to the uncertainty about the U.S. election. and the progress of the Pfizer vaccine. “Judging from the structure of the U.S. stock market on Monday night, the sectors damaged by the epidemic rebounded driven by vaccine news and benefited…”and natural gas license”; he made it clear that he would not ban shale oil development and did not express an opinion on oil exports. Yu Pengsen believes that judging from Biden’s policy proposition, although green energy is promoted, the promotion of green energy It will take a long time, and although the development of oil and natural gas on public land is restricted, the development of shale oil is not prohibited. Overall, there are mixed benefits and disadvantages, and the short-term impact will not be too great.
Zhonghui Futures Zheng Mengqi believes that in the short term, the marginal increase in global crude oil supply lies in Libya; in the long term, Iranian crude oil supply needs further observation. The crude oil supply of countries implementing the OPEC production reduction agreement will continue to be maintained Stable. Although Biden was elected, it will still take some time to return to the “Iran Nuclear Agreement”, and there is no result yet on the distribution of seats in the House and Senate. In the short term, Iran’s production will remain at the current level. From the perspective of other major oil-producing countries , the recovery of U.S. crude oil production is relatively slow, and taking into account Biden’s proposition of promoting green energy and restricting the development of oil on public lands, it is expected that U.S. crude oil production will be difficult to increase significantly. Russia and OPEC are consistent. In order to maintain the current oil price, it may be in the first quarter of next year Continue to join forces with OPEC to extend the current scale of production cuts. Therefore, in the short term, the marginal increase in global crude oil supply is mainly in Libya; in the long term, whether Iran can resume crude oil production and exports still needs to wait for further guidance from Biden’s policies after taking office.
USDA lowered its forecast for the U.S. soybean harvest, and CBOT soybean futures hit a four-year high
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for the U.S. soybean harvest in its just-released monthly report. The estimate of the U.S. soybean harvest and the increase in market demand estimates exceeded market expectations. The U.S. soybean production in 2020/2021 is estimated at 4.170 billion bushels, and the October estimate is 4.268 billion bushels. U.S. soybeans in 2020/2021 Year-end stocks are estimated at 190 million bushels, and the October estimate is 290 million bushels. CBOT soybean futures hit a four-year high.
USDA said that due to expected production decline and strong exports, corn and soybean stocks this year will fall to the lowest level in seven years. Analysts believe that USDA estimates that the U.S. end-of-year stocks in the 2020/2021 market year will fall to 190 million bushels. If indeed In this case, it will be the lowest since 2013/2014.
It is worth mentioning that the precious metal sector has fallen sharply since this week, especially on Tuesday, when Shanghai Silver fell by more than 7%. Shanghai gold fell more than 4% during the session. Cong Shanshan, a precious metal analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute, said that the phased progress in the new crown vaccine and the surge in market risk appetite are the main reasons for the “avalanche” decline of the precious metal sector. “From a technical perspective, after gold continues to consolidate in the rectangular shape, it is stimulated by the good news about the vaccine and has signs of a downward breakthrough.”
In the view of Wang Jun, senior analyst at Minmetals Economic Futures, Precious metals fell back after a surge at the beginning of the week, mainly affected by news of positive vaccine progress. Market risk appetite rebounded, and rising nominal interest rates suppressed risk aversion. At the same time, after Biden won the election, the market was trading in inflation expectations, which also gave precious metals traders the opportunity to leave the market at a high level. In the long run, Biden’s election will be conducive to the control of the epidemic in the United States, the introduction of fiscal stimulus in the United States and the stabilization of the economy. Therefore, it will have a positive effect on increasing risk appetite. However, in the short term, the market is still uncertain about factors such as the President’s Whether the transition can go smoothly, whether the Democrats can control the Senate, etc., the restoration of risk appetite will not happen overnight.
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