Recently, India’s CAI’s forecast of total cotton production in 2020/21 has become increasingly “unreliable” and lower, from more than 38 million bales (some Indian ginners and government agencies even believe that this year’s cotton production Expected to reach 40 million bales) was lowered to 36 million bales, and was further reduced to 35.6 million bales in mid-November (a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, approximately 6.052 million tons). The reason given by CAI was that the recent continuous heavy rains and insect pest problems have led to a decline in cotton yields. , and the industry believes that the planting area in Gujarat has dropped by more than 15% year-on-year, and the COVID-19 epidemic (especially in rural India) has greatly affected cotton field management, seed cotton harvesting and sales, which is also the key to lower-than-expected yields and total output.
In just about two months, 2.5-4 million bales of cotton disappeared from CAI’s “books”; and according to USDA’s latest monthly report, India’s total cotton production forecast for 2020/21 remains unchanged At 6.532 million tons, the difference with CAI’s data has widened from 300,000 tons in the previous period to 500,000 tons. Relevant Indian government departments have increasingly questioned the USDA data’s “other motives” and deliberately suppressed Indian cotton prices. An Indian cotton company in Mumbai said that before September 2020, most cotton areas in India had good weather, coupled with the large-scale promotion of BT cotton seeds, it is logical to think that Indian cotton yields will increase significantly in 2020/21 in August/September, and 2020 The actual growth of cotton planting area in India is 1%-2% (statistics from the Indian Ministry of Agriculture is 12.947 million hectares, a year-on-year increase of 1.87%). It is not groundless to predict that India’s total cotton output will reach more than 38 million bales this year; but since October, India has The southwest monsoon “comes early and leaves late”, causing excessive rainfall in major cotton-producing areas such as Maharashtra, Kupang, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, causing cotton fields to be flooded. Not only the yield was greatly affected, but also the cotton grade , the quality is also very unsatisfactory.
Judging from the survey, as of mid-November, several large international cotton merchants and import companies were not very enthusiastic and enthusiastic about signing contracts to purchase Indian cotton in 2020/21, and they still need to “trade time” space”. First, CCI not only started acquiring high-priced MSPs from Punjab, Hayana, Telangana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but also raised the bidding price; second, the second and third waves of the new crown epidemic broke out in India. There is strong uncertainty in Indian cotton processing, shipping, delivery, etc. in 2020/21; third, due to continued widespread rainfall, harvesting and processing delays, buyers are worried about the quality and spinnability of Indian cotton in 2020/21 Fourth, the basis difference quoted by Indian ginners and exporters for M 1-5/32 lint cotton in December/January/February shipping date is generally 4.5-6.5 cents/pound, which is only 1.5 lower than Brazilian cotton of the same quality and shipping date. -2 cents/pound, obviously not competitive enough. </p
