Since mid-to-late November, polyester raw materials have continued to rise, polymerization costs have continued to rise, polyester consumer yarn and other products have continued to rise, and after the downstream polyester industrial yarn has concentrated on replenishing positions in the early stage, the market is currently mostly on the sidelines. The low transaction price has been slightly increased, but the overall price has not changed significantly, and profits have been squeezed. Since October, some downstream orders for polyester industrial yarn have continued to be acceptable. The factory has not yet had a large inventory pressure, and there are low shrinkage, ultra-low shrinkage, and high shrinkage. Orders for some specifications such as low mold shrinkage are mostly in the over-connected state, which supports the strong mainstream transaction price of ordinary high-strength polyester industrial yarn. Near the end of the month, some factory purchasing nodes are starting to worry about the market price trend in the later period. The editor believes that the price of comprehensive raw materials and demand in the later period may be difficult to fluctuate greatly.
Price and profit
Mainstream price and profit trend chart of polyester industrial yarn ordinary high-strength 1000D/192F from 2019 to now
Source: Longzhong Information
Longzhong Information data shows that polyester industrial yarn is generally high-strength The mainstream transaction price of 1000D/192F in the market is 7,000 yuan/ton, delivered to nearby areas, which is 1,700 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year, a decrease of -19.54%. Looking at the details, the mainstream quotation from the factory is 7,000-7,300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction is 6,800-7,100 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton, delivered nearby. In terms of profit, the current processing range of ordinary high-strength 1000D/192F is 2275-2300 yuan/ton, which is 150 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year. The profit in August so far in 2019 has been as low as -800 yuan/ton, mainly due to the increase in cost. The polyester industrial yarn market is slow to follow up.
In terms of new production capacity
List of new domestic polyester industrial yarn production capacity in 2020
Unit: 10,000 tons/year
Source: Longzhong Information
The new polyester industrial yarn production capacity during the year is 450,000 tons/year, The production capacity growth rate is 26.89%. It is expected that the new production capacity of polyester industrial yarn next year will be about 340,000 tons/year, and the production capacity growth rate is still above 10%. It is expected that polyester industrial yarn will still be in a rapid expansion cycle of production capacity in the next one or two years, with various varieties and models. Globalization will be the focus of future enterprise development.
Raw material end
In terms of PTA, the operating rate in early December was relatively high at more than 90%, and Fujian Baihong produced 2.5 million tons/month in the month The PTA project in 2017 is expected to produce products. The overall operating rate of polyester in the first half of the month is relatively stable at around 88%; in terms of ethylene glycol, the current import arrivals are reduced and the inventory is declining in a healthy way. The overall supply remains tight. In the middle and late months of the month, due to environmental protection and Affected by the requirements for energy conservation and consumption reduction in some regions, construction starts may be expected to decline slightly. Therefore, the overall social supply of PTA, the main raw material, is still expected to increase during the month.
Demand side
Polyester industrial yarn downstream mainly includes cables, geotechnical applications, cord fabrics and other woven fabrics and ribbons. Currently, some of the woven fabrics are The demand for fabrics such as light box advertising fabrics and tarpaulins is acceptable due to the expected increase in industry and exhibition activities in the first half of next year; the demand for cord fabrics from downstream tires, driven by the rubber market, is acceptable, and orders are generally good. The above categories mainly involve low-end products. For polyester industrial yarn models such as shrinkage, ultra-low shrinkage, high modulus and low shrinkage, factories currently have better orders and will receive orders from January to February next year. Mainstream high-strength yarns have more new production capacity during the year, and the related downstream demand has not increased significantly. Therefore, the mainstream transaction price of ordinary high-strength 1000D/192F market has been maintained at the level of 6800-7100 yuan/ton recently. The polymerization cost has risen strongly and the demand is limited, but it is difficult to drive the market of polyester industrial yarn to rise.
To sum up, the new production capacity of polyester industrial yarn during the year is relatively large, mainly mainstream ordinary high-strength, with large supply and insufficient follow-up of demand, which restricts the overall market transaction focus of polyester industrial yarn. Moving up, looking at December, most downstream companies have not yet reached the procurement node, and prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term. After the inventory of some models of enterprises has accumulated slightly at the end of December, the high prices may be slightly profitable, and some downstream companies just need to replenish their positions; in January, some downstream companies are considering the Spring Festival. During the off-peak holidays or stocking up in advance, there may be expectations for factory concessions and downstream replenishment in the middle and late half of the year. However, considering that processing fees are now low and downstream orders for some specifications are good, the price may be mainly 6,600-7,000 yuan/ton for shipments. It is difficult to There is a lot of room for adjustment.
<br
