At the beginning of 2021, PTA enters a new chapter with a new atmosphere. At the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia unexpectedly announced that it would voluntarily cut production by 1 million barrels per day in the next two months. International oil prices continued to rise. Although the gains have slowed down due to the severe negative effects of the overseas epidemic, Saudi Arabia’s commitment to additional production cuts continues to bring benefits to the market. Support, with the strong support from the cost side of PTA, the price has started to soar. As of January 8, the PTA price closed at 3,845 yuan/ton.
Recently, the price of PTA has experienced a correction after breaking through the 4,000 yuan mark. Under the fluctuation of crude oil, the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is average, and the price of PTA fluctuates and falls. Under this correction, the price of PTA can continue to rise. ? In fact, most people in the industry said that the price correction of PTA this time was for a better step forward.
Saudi Arabia’s determination to balance the oil market at the OPEC+ meeting is amazing. It is speculated that there may be three reasons behind it: 1. As we all know, Russia proposed an intention to increase production as early as December last year, in order to avoid entanglement with Russia’s production increase plan. , Saudi Arabia adopts more direct means to solve the problem. 2. U.S. President Biden will officially take office on January 20. At that time, the much-watched U.S.-Iran relations may ease. The United States is expected to return to the Iran nuclear agreement. Iran may then restart its production increase plan, creating potential negative pressure on the supply side. 3. The production cut of 1 million barrels per day is acceptable to Saudi Arabia. The trade-off between volume and price may be the result of a trade-off. Judging from Saudi Arabia’s actions this time, it is natural that it does not want oil prices to fall back to the low range, and the oil price mark of US$50 has been greatly stabilized. Therefore, this meeting brings continuous benefits to the market, especially Saudi Arabia’s determination to reduce production, which balances supply and demand in the short term, and the market atmosphere is relatively positive and optimistic.
Public health events have always been the biggest variable. The epidemic in Europe and the United States has become increasingly serious, mutations have emerged in some countries, and the number of new infections has hit new highs, bringing uncertainty to the economy and oil demand. International oil prices have risen. Restricted. At the same time, the storage conditions of vaccines are very harsh. Due to the influence of ultra-low temperature storage, some vaccines are unable to be vaccinated after production. Therefore, the development of epidemic mutations in the later period and the verification of vaccines are still variables that we need to pay close attention to.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the Spring Festival holiday is getting closer and closer. Some downstream polyester companies have announced maintenance plans. However, the maintenance plans of large enterprises are not yet clear, and there are still new devices put into production before the end of 2020, making polyester The overall load is stable and demand continues to be effectively supported. The supply of PTA itself is stable, and processing fees are gradually declining due to cost pressure. However, at present, the factory has no obvious plans for centralized maintenance and load reduction, and in the first half of 2021, a new device with an annual capacity of 11.5 million tons is planned to be put into operation. The supply will Facing a new high again, downstream polyester also has 6.035 million tons of new equipment planned to be put into production in 2021. Calculated based on the demand of 0.855, the corresponding PTA demand is 5.16 million tons, and the increase is not as high as that of PTA. Therefore, it is difficult to see an inflection point in the loose supply and demand pattern.
Taken together, cost-side support is still relatively strong. In the absence of substantial negative news, crude oil valuations are still high, which continues to provide strong support for PTA. In the short term, under the shock of oil prices, the price trend of PTA is relatively volatile and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3501-4074 yuan. In the medium to long term, the global economy is recovering, demand is expected to improve, and PTA will still be driven upward. The market outlook still needs to pay close attention to the new guidance that U.S. President Biden will bring to the market after he takes office in late January.
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