The Zheng Cotton CF2105 contract continues to consolidate within the 15,000-15,500 yuan/ton compartment, and the spot basis has also stabilized (including point prices and pending order basis). The long and short forces in the entire cotton market are in a stalemate.
Cotton-related enterprises in Shandong, Henan and other places generally believe that as the Spring Festival approaches, most small and medium-sized yarn mills have stopped arranging orders and are rushing to deliver goods and withdraw funds before mid-February. In addition, Guangdong The textile markets in Jiangsu, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places are expected to close before February 5 (middlemen will suspend stocking up on yarn and cloth). Therefore, the short-term trend of Zheng cotton may have a “top at the top and a bottom at the bottom”, and there is a probability of a second breakthrough of the previous high of 15,610 yuan/ton. Not big.
From the Xinjiang cotton spot market, in addition to traders and futures companies who are still actively selling based on quotations, the main contract of Xinjiang ginners in Zhengzhou cotton is 15,500 yuan/ton. The following shipments are not very enthusiastic. Except for some transactions at “fixed price”, the basis price quotations of high-grade and high-rise water lint cotton are not satisfactory.
What factors currently affect and restrict cotton textile mills and middlemen from purchasing medium and high-quality cotton in large quantities to replenish their stocks? The author summarizes the following points:
First, the new crown epidemic is not only out of control again in Europe, the United States, South Korea, Japan and other countries, it is also spreading and growing in some areas of China. Textile and clothing enterprises and consumer terminals Concerns about order taking and delivery in the first half of 2021 continue to rise;
Secondly, since December, the price of cotton yarn has risen sharply, but the increase in gray cloth, fabric, and clothing prices has not been transmitted smoothly. , the pressure may appear in the second quarter;
Third, the industry is worried that with the “retaliatory” recovery of the textile and clothing domestic and foreign sales market from October to December 2020, global consumption capacity will be overdrawn, and then superimposed There is uncertainty about the development of the epidemic in the first half of 2021. After the Spring Festival, the demand for cotton yarn, gray cloth, fabrics, etc. may fluctuate and cool down in stages;
Fourthly, with the epidemic situation in India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and other countries, Under control, production, transportation, export, trade, etc. continue to recover. Orders from European, American, Japanese and other countries’ textile and clothing brands and retailers are accelerating out of China; while China’s imports of cotton yarn, gray fabrics, etc. have stabilized at a high level. According to customs statistics, my country imported a total of 1.9 million tons of cotton yarn in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%; however, a total of 700,000 tons of cotton yarn was imported from September to December 2020, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Therefore, the situation of domestic yarn is relatively delicate. </p
