[Introduction]: Since October 2020, the equity inventory of polyester staple fiber companies has continued to be negative, and factory maintenance has increased since mid-January 2021. The centralized stocking of midstream and downstream customers at the end of January further aggravated the tight supply situation of enterprises. In addition, the upward pull of PTA and ethylene glycol under the background of cost support and tight spot supply. Entering the first trading day of February, polyester prices The spot price of short fiber futures has achieved a resonant rise. As of 11:30 a.m., the PF futures 05 contract closed at 6,748 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.09%, and the polyester staple spot benchmark price was 6,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.42%.
This round of gains may seem sudden, but in fact it is the inevitable result driven by fundamentals.
1. Cost
First of all, in terms of cost, PTA spot circulation continues to be tight. Moreover, the support of crude oil continues to be strong, and the recent supply tension of PX has also formed a strong cost support for PTA. Therefore, the rise in the spot price of PTA futures has formed a strong cost support for the polyester market. Ethylene glycol is also obviously supported by costs. At the same time, the lack of imports has led to a tight situation in spot supply. The limited increase in supply in February has also caused the industry to re-examine the current fundamentals. Therefore, under the logic of tight supply and stable demand, , ethylene glycol also showed a strong pattern.
2. Supply and demand
Secondly, from the perspective of supply and demand of short fiber itself, factories have continued to be oversold recently. At the end of January (January 29) The centralized stocking of middlemen and downstream factories has intensified the tension in factories. At present, the number of oversold days of mainstream short fiber manufacturers has reached 40-45 days, which means that even if there is no sales in February, the pressure on factories It won’t add much. Moreover, downstream orders are performing well, and most polyester yarn factory orders can be received by mid-March, so the supply and demand logic is still optimistic.
Short fiber price and inventory from the above picture It can also be clearly seen from the comparison chart that since the negative value of short fiber inventory, the market price performance has been showing a wave-like upward trend.
3. Post-holiday expectations
In terms of post-holiday expectations, the PX supply shortage will continue, especially in February. Seriously, there will be strong support for PTA. The spot supply of ethylene glycol is also tight in the first quarter. However, more maintenance of polyester factories in February will also limit the room for raw material growth; while polyester staple fiber companies are more oversold before the holiday, and in the Cost support is relatively stable and orders from downstream spinning mills are still optimistic. Therefore, market participants are still optimistic about the post-holiday market expectations. Although downstream factories have relatively sufficient stocks of raw materials, short fiber companies have been oversold for more than January. The gradual recovery of the Hebei market after the holiday will also drive part of the demand, so the market throughout February and March may still be easy to rise but difficult to fall. Looking at the trend, looking at the first half of 2021, it may be expected that the spot price will rise to the 7,000 yuan/ton mark.
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