Brief description of the first part
According to Jinlianchuang monitoring, international crude oil continued to rise in early January, and commodities collectively strengthened. Due to the large number of PX maintenance devices, domestic supply was on the low side. Tight, the market is rising steadily, merchants are willing to raise prices, and driven by raw materials, the polyester product market is rising accordingly. However, starting from the middle to late half of the year, market driving factors weakened, and the polyester raw material market returned to market fundamentals. Under the pressure of accumulated inventory, the PTA market gradually weakened.
Table PX and related products rise and fall rankings in January
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In January, the monthly average price of PX upstream and downstream products rose overall month-on-month. Among them, the monthly average price of the PX market showed the largest month-on-month increase, with the monthly average price rising as high as 13.70 month-on-month. %. In addition, the monthly average price of the polyester chip market ranked second, with a month-on-month increase of 8.62%. The monthly average price of the isomeric xylene market increased by 7.81% month-on-month, while the monthly average price of the PTA market and the polyester bottle chip market did not increase month-on-month. Large, up 7.19% and 6.39% respectively.
Part 2: Market analysis of main products in the PX industry chain
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Isomerized xylene
Domestic xylene market continued in January Crude oil futures prices surged higher, and the cost side provided more support. However, the domestic spot supply tightened slightly, and the supply of imported goods was also limited. The port inventory level continued to decrease, and the pressure on spot sales in the market eased. In addition, due to the intensive maintenance of long-term domestic enterprises, the supply of Yuanyue has declined, and the strong increase in negotiated prices in Yuanyue has driven the spot price, causing the spot price of xylene to further rise. However, crude oil futures prices stagnated in the second half of the month, and domestic gasoline wholesale prices gradually stabilized. However, xylene prices continued to rise, and there was a lack of profit in oil adjustment. The selectivity for xylene procurement declined. The operating rate of PX companies rebounded slightly, and the price difference between PX and MX was large. The CFR US dollar price spread is around 90-100 US dollars/ton most of the time, and PX factories are more motivated to procure mixed xylene from outside.
PX
The Asian PX market fluctuated and rose in January. As of the end of the month, the Asian PX was estimated at US$666. / ton FOB South Korea and 684 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan / China, up 65 US dollars / ton from the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil continued to rise, the overall enthusiasm of the industry chain was high, and the general environment was warmer. In addition, Pengzhou Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year PX unit was temporarily shut down due to malfunction, domestic supply continued to tighten, and cargo holders had a strong intention to raise prices, while The downstream PTA market also continues to pick up, and the linked raw material PX continues to strengthen. International crude oil continued to hit recent highs in the first half of the year, and the PX upstream and downstream markets generally followed suit. Although Pengzhou Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year PX unit resumed production, the current overall domestic supply is still not high, and merchants have a strong intention to raise prices, and PX remains strong. situation. The market rally slowed down in the middle of the year. Two sets of domestic PX devices are still under maintenance, and the supply is relatively small. However, under the influence of some long-term uncertain factors, market participants are still wary of this upward trend, and the market is mainly volatile and consolidated. . At the end of the month, the new PTA plant of Baihong Petrochemical was put into operation. The PTA industry started at a high level, and the demand for PX was good. Merchants held firm in their offers. However, as Fuhai Chuang’s PX plant was restarted after maintenance, the supply of PX also increased, which suppressed market sentiment and led to a stalemate in the long-short atmosphere. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the January PX settlement price was 5,190 yuan/ton, which was 530 yuan/ton higher than the previous month’s settlement. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in January was US$679.95/ton, up 13.70% month-on-month and down 16.41% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$636/ton on January 1, and the highest price was US$697/ton on January 14. Ton.
PTA
The PTA spot market fluctuated and strengthened in January, and the overall transaction situation was acceptable. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil market operated at a high level, the PX market fluctuated and consolidated, and the cost side boosted the PTA market. At the same time, funds drove futures to rise and spot circulation tightened, and the PTA market operated strongly. However, the supply of PTA remains high, and new orders in the terminal market are not smooth. The demand side lacks substantial positive boost, and the fundamentals remain weak. On the 10th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 95 yuan/ton for the 2101 contract, and the offer was reduced by 100 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3430-3470 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, European and American countries gradually implemented vaccinations, international crude oil prices continued to rise, the PX market consolidated strongly, and the cost side boosted the PTA market. However, downstream polyester production and sales are slightly light, the terminal market is seasonally weak, and the accumulation of supply and demand still suppresses market sentiment, and the room for PTA growth is limited. On the 17th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 85-95 yuan/ton for the 2101 contract, and the offer was reduced by 100 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3620-3640 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, international crude oil prices were strong and fluctuated, and the cost side provided solid support for the PTA market. However, changes in the epidemic caused a poor atmosphere in the commodity market. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, and supply contracted slightly in stages. However, the market was still dominated by accumulated inventory, and downstream prices before the holiday Demand is weak and supply and demand fundamentals are improving weakly. On the 30th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 195 yuan/ton for the 2105 contract, and the offer was reduced by 195-200 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3560-3590 yuan/ton. The average PTA market price in East China in December was 3,515 yuan/ton, up 10.02% month-on-month and down 27.24% year-on-year. The highest price was 3,640 yuan/ton on the 17th, and the lowest price was 3,270 yuan/ton on the 2nd.
Polyester chips
The polyester chip market showed a trend of first rising and then declining in January. In early January, the InternationalOil prices fluctuated and rose sharply. Polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol fluctuated at high levels. The cost of polyester was firmly supported. Polyester chip companies raised their quotations significantly by 150 yuan/ton, and the price exceeded the 5,000 mark. Downstream factories were reluctant to buy due to the increase. Guided by a downward mentality, purchasing sentiment is high, and market production and sales are significantly increasing. In the middle of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated at a high level, and raw material PTA fluctuated. Cost support was acceptable. Factories had a strong price support attitude, and quotations remained stable. However, downstream factories mostly digested the early stocking of raw materials and lacked willingness to replenish positions. The market inquiry atmosphere was light, and the overall production and sales were weak. generally. In the second half of the year, the polyester raw material PTA operated in a narrow range, and the role of cost support weakened. The quotations of slicing companies decreased in a narrow range. As the end of the year approached, downstream factories lacked confidence in the market outlook and were more cautious in purchasing raw materials. On-site spot transactions were mediocre, and the slicing market was weak and consolidated. . As of January 29, the average chip market price was 5,102 yuan/ton, up 8.62% month-on-month and down 19.79% year-on-year. The highest price was 5,250 yuan/ton on January 14, and the lowest price was 4,800 yuan/ton on January 4. Yuan / ton.
Polyester bottle flakes
The domestic bottle-grade PET market showed a trend of first rising and then declining in January . In the first half of the month, the bottle-grade PET market continued its strong trend. At the opening of the new year, the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol futures markets surged higher. On the 5th, OPEC+ reached an agreement to reduce production. International crude oil began to rise all the way. The polyester raw material PTA market continued to rise. Driven by costs, bottle chip manufacturers actively increased their offers. As a result, the average daily turnover of major bottle flake manufacturers is more than 10,000 tons. Most of them are replenished by dealers. The market volume is increasing, which has helped the market price gradually rise to 5,600-5,800 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the bottle-grade PET market began to weaken slightly. The polyester raw material PTA market turned downward. Although bottle flake manufacturers continued to offer prices at 5,800-5,900 yuan/ton, discounts were relaxed, and dealers slightly reduced prices for shipments. The focus of market negotiations gradually dropped to 5,550-5,700 yuan/ton. On the 29th, driven by the surge in the raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets, the focus of market discussions rose to 5650-5750 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere on the market turned dim, and the overall market transactions were sparse. Downstream manufacturers have sufficient stocks in the early stage, and the follow-up of buying orders has slowed down. No bidding has been heard from major downstream manufacturers during the month. As of January 29, the average market price of bottle-grade PET in East China in January was 5,644 yuan/ton, up 6.39% month-on-month and down 14.44% year-on-year. The highest price appeared on January 14 at 5,800 yuan/ton, and the lowest price appeared on 5,350 yuan/ton on January 4.
Part 3 Predictions and Outlook
Jin Lianchuang predicts that the PX industry chain may fluctuate at a high level in February. International oil prices will fluctuate at a high level next month, and costs will provide greater support to the market. In particular, the restart of the 1.6 million tons/year PX unit of Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical has been postponed, which will give the market a certain stimulus. However, the supply and demand sides of the polyester raw material market coexist, and the market may Maintaining a high level, the raw material end provides certain support for the polyester market. There will be an increase in maintenance of polyester equipment next month, and terminal textiles have entered the year-end market. The start-up of weaving enterprises will drop to a low level in the first ten days of the year. Under the support of low inventories of polyester enterprises, the polyester industry chain market will maintain a volatile trend next month. The following is the market outlook for each product:
PX
Jin Lianchuang expects the PX market to fluctuate in a range in February and digest the gains. Mainly, all early PX maintenance equipment has returned to normal. Domestic PX construction starts will remain at a high level, supply has increased significantly, and industry players are cautious. However, the demand for PX is good, and the market is in a stalemate between long and short. On the whole, the PX market is expected to fluctuate in February, and it is difficult to consolidate. There is direction.
PTA
Jin Lianchuang expects the PTA market to be strong in February. As Fujian Baihong’s new device comes into operation, supply pressure continues to increase; however, future downstream demand will continue to decline before the Spring Festival, which is also an expected change. Supported by costs, market prices are highly resistant to falling prices. The trend of crude oil will definitely boost the PTA market. At the same time, the global epidemic situation has eased, and the market is still relatively optimistic about textile demand after the Spring Festival. Therefore, the PTA market may maintain a strong pattern in February.
Polyester PET
Jin Lianchuang predicts that the polyester PET market may fluctuate in February. In February, the raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol may operate strongly, and the cost-end promotion effect of polyester has increased. From the supply side, polyester plants in many factories were shut down for maintenance in early February, the operating rate was significantly reduced, and the total market supply was further reduced. Although production resumed in late February, it will still take time for the market supply to recover; from the demand side, Coinciding with the Spring Festival holiday, the overall demand for polyester PET in the market is average. Most downstream factories are cautiously waiting and watching, and the buying sentiment is cautious. The supply and demand side of the polyester PET market is generally weak. Taken together, the polyester PET market is expected to fluctuate in February, and we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market in the future. </p
