From the survey of ports such as Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the bonded + customs cleared foreign cotton stocks at the ports have continued to rise since mid-February, and the storage capacity pressure of some bonded warehouses and transit warehouses in Qingdao Port (Huangdao, Jiaozhou and Jiaonan) has increased significantly. , some warehouses with good locations and convenient access to goods are in short supply.
A medium-sized cotton trading company in Huangdao stated that since mid-February, ICE futures and Zheng cotton futures have risen simultaneously, and quotations for cargo, bonded, and customs-cleared cotton have all increased (the basis remains stable), and port spot inquiries have Prices and transactions continue to be weak, while the arrival volume of U.S. cotton, Indian cotton, Brazilian cotton and West African cotton in the November-January shipping period for 2020/21 has increased significantly. “Less outbound, more inbound” has resulted in cotton from China’s main ports Inventories are high.
Judging from the quotation resources of several large international cotton merchants and import companies and feedback from some warehouses, the current total foreign cotton volume at the port is expected to have risen to 530,000-550,000 tons, an increase of 6% from the end of January. -70,000 tons, among which stocks of US cotton, Indian cotton and Brazilian cotton are growing rapidly. The specific estimates are as follows: Qingdao Port (including Huangdao, Jiaozhou, and Jiaonan) has bonded + customs clearance cotton inventory of approximately 305,000-320,000 tons, with U.S. cotton and Brazilian cotton accounting for a much higher share than cotton from other origins; Zhangjiagang foreign cotton inventory is approximately 95,000-105,000 tons , mainly American cotton, Indian cotton, and Brazilian cotton; the cotton warehouses outside Shanghai Port, Nanjing Port, Ningbo Port, Tianjin Port, Guangzhou Port and inland bonded areas are about 120,000-130,000 tons (the inventory growth is significantly lower than that of Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, etc. main port).
Two cotton traders in Henan and Jiangsu judge that as the main ICE contract approaches the 95 cents/pound mark, the CF2105 oscillating chamber moves up to 16,500-17,000 yuan/ton, and cotton textile mills, fabrics, Clothing and foreign trade companies need a longer period of time to absorb high costs. Therefore, short-term foreign cotton stocks at ports may maintain a pattern of more input and less output, and the pressure on warehouse capacity will not be easily relieved. </p
