In the last week of February, PTA futures prices kept pace with other chemical products and continued to rise sharply. The main contract once again stood at 4,500 yuan/ton after more than a year. In the short term, although supply pressure has not yet been lifted, PTA will continue to operate strongly driven by rising demand and strong costs.
Polyester operating rate rebounded rapidly
After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream polyester and terminal weaving companies gradually resumed work and production, and market trading activities also began Pick up. As local governments advocated “celebrating the Chinese New Year in situ” this year, the start-up of polyester installations during the holidays was slightly higher than in previous years. In addition, the arrival of non-local employees after the holiday was better than in previous years. The start-up of polyester installations showed a rapid rebound after the holiday. PTA Demand has picked up significantly. As of February 22, the operating rate of polyester equipment was 84.52%, an increase of 6.34 percentage points from February 10 before the holiday, and an increase of 11.64 percentage points from the same period in 2020; based on existing production capacity estimates, domestic polyester production on February 22 The daily output is approximately 147,100 tons, an increase of approximately 28,800 tons compared with the same period in 2020.
The space for processing fee compression is limited
During the Spring Festival holiday, international oil prices continued to strengthen, and the price of PTA’s direct raw material PX also increased significantly, which made PTA processing During the Spring Festival, the processing fee was once reduced to less than 200 yuan/ton, which is far lower than the fixed processing cost of most domestic devices. Even if the price of PTA rose sharply after the holiday, the PTA processing fee only rose to around 300 yuan/ton. In the short term, Look, there is limited room for further compression of PTA processing fees.
International oil prices continue to remain at high levels for more than a year, providing strong support for PTA prices from the cost side. As of February 22, the price of PX in Asia was US$802/ton, an increase of US$55/ton from February 10. Based on this estimate, the domestic PTA processing fee was 320.89 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.22 yuan/ton from February 10. tons, a decrease of 68.42 yuan/ton compared with the same period in 2020.
Short-term domestic output remains high
During the Spring Festival holiday, Hainan Yisheng’s 2 million tons/year device unexpectedly shut down for maintenance for one month, and the PTA device started construction There has been a decrease, but the newly put into production equipment in Fujian Baihong has begun to be included in the effective production capacity, and the daily output of PTA remains at a high level. As of February 22, the daily operating rate of PTA equipment was 87.06%, an increase of 5.11 percentage points compared with the same period in 2020; the daily output of PTA was approximately 138,800 tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared with the same period in 2020.
In March 2020, there were maintenance plans for multiple PTA units in China, including the Xinfengming 2.5 million ton/year unit and the two 2.2 million ton/year units of Hengli Petrochemical Line 1 and Line 3. etc. According to current statistics, the annual production capacity of the planned maintenance equipment is 12.65 million tons. Since the PTA processing fee is at a low level of around 300 yuan/ton, there is a high probability that the equipment maintenance plan will be carried out as scheduled. At that time, the domestic PTA supply will experience a periodic decline. During the same period, the domestic polyester end construction is expected to remain at a high level, resulting in a contradiction between PTA supply and demand. or ease.
In summary, although the absolute price of PTA has moved away from historical lows, domestic PTA processing fees are at a low level. Therefore, changes in raw material costs will still dominate PTA prices in the short term. factor. On the other hand, the polyester production started to pick up rapidly after the holiday. In March, maintenance arrangements were made for many domestic PTA devices. There is an expectation of a phased decline in PTA supply, which is good for PTA prices. In the near future, we must focus on the progress of equipment maintenance at major PTA plants and the sustainability of the rebound in polyester equipment operations. </p
