Recently, PTA has made a rapid correction after overshooting. On March 2, the closing price hit the limit, with the main 2105 contract falling to 4574 yuan/ton. In the early price rise process, the spot market actively pursued the increase, and the basis spread strengthened significantly. On the other hand, PTA processing fees have been continuously compressed. As of February 24, PTA processing fees fell to less than 300 yuan/ton, down 11.66% from before the Spring Festival. By sorting out the fundamentals of supply and demand, the author believes that the early rise in PTA was a cost-push type of market, but recently, PTA has fallen sharply driven by international crude oil. From March to April, with the start of downstream demand and the centralized production reduction of equipment, PTA may usher in a phased destocking, and prices will still have upward momentum.
The picture shows the trend of PTA2105 contract, spot and basis difference
PX has no accumulation pressure for the time being
Recently, the absolute price of PX has strengthened relative to crude oil and naphtha. The main reason is that it is currently in the gap period of new PX production capacity, and there is a mismatch with the PTA production capacity rollout schedule, resulting in an improvement in the marginal supply and demand of PX. Following the launch of Sinochem’s Quanzhou unit at the end of last year, the latest set of production projects, the Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 2.5 million ton PX production line, will also release production capacity in May this year.
Looking at the demand side, the newly put into production PTA equipment will also provide further support for the PX demand side. Among them, Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million-ton PTA unit has been put into operation from January to February; Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5-million-ton PTA new capacity is planned to be put into operation in early March; and Ningbo Yisheng’s 3.3 million-ton PTA unit is planned to be put into operation from March to April. After these devices are put into production, the monthly increase in marginal demand for PX will increase by nearly 320,000 tons.
Recently, news about equipment changes have been particularly frequent, triggering market concerns about intensifying supply shrinkage, causing reality and expectations to continuously reinforce each other. In late January, the overall supply level of PX in Asia declined due to the unplanned shutdown of foreign production lines, the failure of Zhongjin Petrochemical to restart and extended maintenance, the reduced load operation of multiple units, and the advance of some maintenance expectations. At present, the start-up load of CICC Petrochemical has increased, and the domestic PX operating rate has returned to 82.6%. The devices expected to be overhauled in the near future include Shanghai Petrochemical’s 1 million ton PX device scheduled to be overhauled for 3 months on March 10, Qingdao Lidong’s 1 million ton PX device scheduled to be overhauled for 45 days on March 20, and Qilu Petrochemical’s 95,000 ton PX device to be maintained for a long period of time. stop.
The picture shows PTA/PX profit (unit: yuan/ton)
In March, although domestic PX supply was affected by equipment maintenance Constraints, but there are expectations on the demand side that new PTA equipment will be put into production. The overall supply and demand of PX maintains good signs, and the PX/N price difference still tends to expand. Although the current possible risk point is that under the low profit of PTA/PX, the possibility of incremental maintenance of PTA equipment gradually increases from March to April, and the positive factors of PX destocking may face hedging, but after comprehensive analysis, the author believes that in Before the Zhejiang petrochemical plant is put into operation, coupled with the expected maintenance of two domestic 1-million-ton units, PX supply and demand will still remain tight. This is also the main factor driving the strength of PX spot prices in the near future.
The table summarizes the recent changes in PX equipment (unit: 10,000 tons)
The phased supply gradually Reduction
Currently, the PTA/PX processing difference was once compressed to less than 300 yuan/ton, down 11.66% from before the Spring Festival. The main reason is that under the influence of the commissioning of new equipment and the seasonal reduction of downstream polyester load, PTA experienced a large accumulation of inventory in February, with the balance sheet estimated to be around 500,000 tons. Although the efficiency is poor, the production capacity of PTA equipment under inspection is still low. Excluding long-stop equipment, the only equipment under inspection at present is the 350,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical, the 2.2-million-ton unit of Hanbang, and the 2-million-ton unit of Yisheng Hainan. However, as of February, nearly 10 million tons of equipment have been in operation for more than a year and no maintenance plan has been announced. Therefore, it is expected that PTA may undergo centralized maintenance from March to April, which will also offset the increase in supply brought by new production capacity to a certain extent, causing PTA supply and demand to face a phased improvement.
The table shows the expected maintenance of PTA (unit: 10,000 tons)
High growth in terminal demand
From the perspective of downstream demand, polyester has recovered smoothly after the Spring Festival, and the demand side has actively recovered. Before the Spring Festival, most polyester factories reduced their workload. However, due to local governments advocating “celebrating the New Year on the spot”, changes in polyester production during the Spring Festival were relatively limited. After the Spring Festival, terminal recovery exceeded expectations, and polyester factories resumed production faster than in previous years. It is expected that the polyester operating load may increase to 92%-93% in March. According to market statistics, the current daily output of polyester is around 142,200 tons, which may increase to 160,000-162,000 tons in early March. Under the bullish atmosphere, polyester production and sales increased, filament production and sales were 120% respectively, and polyester and short fiber production and sales were 160% respectively. Product inventories dropped significantly, filament inventories dropped to historical average levels, and short fiber inventories maintained negative inventories and continued to decrease.
At the same time, polyester factories are actively following the increase, and the prices of polyester products have increased significantly. The latest data shows that the price of bottle flakes has increased by 7,100 yuan/ton, the price of polyester shorts has increased by 7,800 yuan/ton, and the price of POY has increased by 7,455 yuan/ton, and the efficiency has been greatly improved. Among them, short fiber effect��Breaked through 1,000 yuan/ton. Therefore, based on the expected PTA maintenance and the recovery of downstream demand, PTA supply and demand will usher in a phased improvement in March, and the balance sheet estimates that approximately 150,000 tons will be destocked.
Outlook for the market outlook
Based on the above analysis, the author believes that the early rise in PTA is a cost-push market, and with the OPEC+ meeting held, the crude oil market has a short-term memory A certain degree of caution led PTA to follow the decline in crude oil. However, PTA supply and demand gradually improved in March. With the start of downstream demand and the centralized production reduction of equipment, PTA prices still have upward momentum.
Risk points: In the near future, we need to pay close attention to the performance of PTA device maintenance from March to April. Once large-scale centralized maintenance occurs, PTA prices and profits will reach an inflection point. At the same time, as the pressure brought by the commissioning of new PTA equipment may materialize in the middle to late second quarter, we also need to be wary of the price space after the fundamentals are under pressure. </p
