Since July, cotton prices at home and abroad have started to rise. The main force of ICE US cotton futures rose to 90 cents/pound, and the main force of Zheng cotton futures was also hovering at the 17,000 yuan/ton mark. Judging from historical prices, its absolute value has risen to the mid-to-high range. However, under favorable expectations such as increased global consumption, low US cotton inventories, and optimistic domestic new cotton purchase prices, the market’s bullish atmosphere is still strong. Just last night, cotton prices fell sharply both inside and outside the market. What warning does it bring to the market?
From the analysis and interpretation of most institutions today, it can be seen that the commodity market fell sharply last night, which is the most direct The factor was that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates agreed on a plan to increase crude oil production, causing the price of crude oil, the king of commodities, to plummet. At the same time, the global epidemic has escalated again, and Europe has become the first region in the world where the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 has exceeded 50 million. The more contagious “Delta” strain of the COVID-19 mutant virus has caused the number of new confirmed cases to hit a new high every day, which has also made The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States has reached a three-month high. The three major U.S. stock indexes hit new lows in the past month, the Dow fell more than 700 points, the Nasdaq index hit its biggest drop in two months, the panic index rose more than 20%, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 10 basis points in one day, at 2 It fell below 1.2% for the first time since March.
Affected by concerns about global financial market risks, US cotton prices fell nearly 4% in the external market. It can be seen that the epidemic still poses great risks to the global financial market and even the commodity market. At present, the cotton supply and demand situation at home and abroad has improved, but it cannot avoid the emergence of potential risks and the resistance or even new impacts they will bring to the recovery of cotton market consumption. In addition, as the market has not relaxed its concerns about inflation caused by various countries’ efforts to stimulate economic recovery after the epidemic, the possibility of commodities entering a downward cycle in the second half of the year has increased, and the cotton market may experience multiple storms.
Therefore, driven by limited positive effects, the market still needs to be cautious about the rising cost of new cotton and the expected recovery in market consumption, which will drive the recovery of cotton prices. It also needs to grasp relevant stimuli in a timely manner. Factors, grasp the changes in the rhythm of price fluctuations, so as to avoid falling into the trap of “self” thinking logic. </p
