Real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of 6:30 on May 13, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide There were 4,254,302 cases of pneumonia and a total of 290,838 deaths, including a total of 1,366,350 confirmed cases and 82,105 deaths in the United States.
As the epidemic intensifies, some new changes have occurred in the textile market. When the development of the epidemic became more regular, the textile market began to stabilize, and some new normals gradually formed.
Insufficient terminal demand, weaving bears heavy burden Press
First of all, the operation of textile enterprises has become difficult. .
Affected by the epidemic, terminal demand has been greatly suppressed, which has been transmitted step by step in the industry chain, eventually leading to the emergence of a “stagnant water” situation in the market .
When orders in the market can circulate normally, brands, garment factories, traders, and weaving companies each perform their duties, and terminals Consumers buy the right products, and each link in the industry chain can also earn the profits they deserve;
But when terminal consumption is blocked, the industry All links in the chain are still collecting funds and reducing risks. At this time, the weaving end of the upstream industry chain is under higher pressure than before.
In terms of gray fabric inventory, the current gray fabric inventory is 42 days old Left and right, although it has dropped slightly from the previous high, it is still at a high level.
In terms of startup rate, looms are currently powered on in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions The rate is around 67%, down nearly 20% from the same period last year.
Until terminal demand improves, the performance of weaving companies will Cash flow is difficult to effectively supplement. It is foreseeable that in the future, weaving companies will further shrink production, gray fabric inventory will accumulate step by step, loom operating rates will decrease step by step, and cash flow will dry up step by step.
The market is moving, but once It will be destroyed as soon as it appears
When the market is normal, the cloth on the market is scattered in various links such as clothing companies, traders, and weaving companies. Everyone bears part of the financial pressure; from the model above, we can see that when the current market situation is not good and market confidence is insufficient, traders choose to reduce stocking and stop losses, and weaving companies bear more pressure.
At the same time, it is not that there is no money in the market. Because trading companies have shrunk their operations, the cash flow on hand is actually very abundant. The only ones who have no money are weaving companies. That’s all.
When traders have a lot of funds on hand waiting to buy the bottom At that time, as soon as there was any disturbance, the entire textile market was like a haystack meeting sparks.
This is exactly the case, when the market is hot , generally accompanied by rising raw material prices and an explosion in polyester production and sales, among which polyester production and sales appear more intuitive.
From the recent stage, the average polyester market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions From the production and sales trend chart, we can see that after April, polyester production and sales experienced three waves of outbreaks, one in early April, one in the last week of April, and the last wave in early May.
The outbreak of production and sales in early April corresponded to the sharp rise in international oil prices. In the last week of April The outbreak of production and sales corresponds to the large order of 130 million meters of polyester taffeta, and the explosion of production and sales in early May corresponds to the gradual resumption of work abroad, making the market optimistic about the market outlook.
Being favorable After the stimulus, traders were willing to purchase gray fabrics under the influence of bargain-hunting psychology, and some weaving companies also took this opportunity to choose to purchase more raw materials than originally planned. However, due to the pressure of fundamentals, this situation will not last long. , the market will soon return to calm, waiting for the next wave of demand or speculation to come.
However, there are always risks in speculation and bargain hunting. While seeing the market, you should also keep a cool head and try not to let yourself become a “takeover man”.
Foreign trade to domestic trade, offline to online
Enter After May, a wave of news about the resumption of work and production abroad flooded the screen, and the market also took advantage of this. Prices that should and should not go up ended up rising in the end.
But the fact is that demand always lags behind. When the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide has exceeded 4 million, European and American countries finally resumed work. There are still doubts about how vigorously the resumption of production can be achieved.
At this time, orders are often the most honest. The editor asked 7 companies last week, and only one said that foreign trade orders have improved. The editor does not believe in evil and conducted a survey, with nearly 200 companies participating. The final results show that only 16% of companies feel that the market has improved recently.
And it’s not just the problem of no orders, last week The aftermath of BYD’s mask sales to the United States is still lingering. Although there is no new standard issue when selling clothing fabrics, it is not unheard of to encounter such a thing if the other party suddenly increases tariffs.
Under such circumstances, it is not surprising that some companies have shifted their focus from foreign trade to domestic trade. Trader Manager Chen said: “Starting this year, the company’s foreign trade order ratio has dropped from 70% last year to less than 30% today. In the future, we plan to focus on expanding domestic trade sales channels.”
In domestic trade, online store orders, as an emerging market in the past two years, have received special attention. Attention, especially in this year when the epidemic broke out, the demand from physical stores has been slow to pick up, and orders from online stores occupy a more important position in fabric sales.
Compared with physical stores, except for some clothing brands Outside the flagship store, there is a certain phenomenon of “bad money driving out good money” in the online clothing sales process. Because consumers cannot touch the feel of clothing, they can only judge the quality of clothing from photos and reviews. Online stores generally have the phenomenon of fake orders. In the end, the sales volume of online stores is often not proportional to the quality of clothing. In terms of fabrics, online store orders are often a price-win situation. The order is not big, the competition is not small, and the price is even cheaper. As a fabric provider, you can only earn a hard-earned money in the end.
However, I believe that as the sales of online stores are increasing, consumers have higher and higher requirements for quality, and supervision in all aspects is gradually strengthened, This situation will gradually change.
Editor’s note: This year is a once-in-a-century event The epidemic has swept the world and caused a huge blow to the textile market. Such high pressure has led to special market conditions that textile people have never encountered before. However, under long-term high pressure, the textile market has gradually formed a new model to adapt to today’s market conditions. The editor briefly summarizes these contents. , it would be a great honor if it could be of some help to your next production and operation.
�A new set of models has been formed to adapt to the current market situation. The editor has simply summarized these contents. It would be a great honor if it can be of some help to your subsequent production and operation.
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