Christmas and New Year’s Day have passed, but the situation in European and American countries during the holidays is worrying. Especially in the UK, although the government took a series of emergency actions such as closing the city and raising the alert level due to the emergence of the new coronavirus variant before the holidays, the UK ushered in another peak of the epidemic after Christmas. The number of confirmed cases exceeded 40,000 in a single day for the first time on the 28th. On the 29th, an additional 53,135 people were diagnosed, setting a new record for the highest number of confirmed cases in a single day for two consecutive days. On the 31st, the number of confirmed cases once again exceeded 55,000. The daily number of confirmed cases in the United States has always hovered around 200,000.
But these number of confirmed cases may not be the peak in these countries and regions. Because during the holidays, many people in Europe and the United States were not affected by the epidemic and city closures, and travel demand was still very strong. Fauci, the American infectious disease expert, pointed out that it has been extremely difficult to implement isolation measures and contact tracing in the United States. In addition, Fauci added that it is too late for the United States to try to control travel after millions of Americans continued to travel during Christmas despite warnings from health officials. And during the New Year’s Day and New Year’s Eve, people in some countries and regions still hold rallies and parties to celebrate.
With the epidemic out of control, people in Europe and the United States still travel on a large scale, which will inevitably accelerate the spread of the virus. Judging from the fact that the incubation period of the new coronavirus is generally 3-7 days and the longest is no more than 14 days, it is very likely that there will be another peak in Europe and the United States after New Year’s Day.
For our textile industry, which is highly dependent on foreign trade exports, it is not a good thing that after a year of struggle, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has shown no signs of improvement but has worsened. Will the market in the spring and summer of 2021 still be as quiet and stagnant as it was at the beginning of 2020?
Spring and summer orders are less than in previous years, and the pressure may be greater in 2022
The epidemic in early 2020 almost put the textile and garment industry on hold The pause button and the closure of clothing stores in various regions have caused a sharp decline in spring and summer clothing sales. At that time, clothing companies can only choose to sell the spring and summer clothing in stock in the autumn, or sell it in the spring and summer of the following year. But no one expected that the COVID-19 epidemic would not get out of the downward curve that everyone wanted to see, especially as the epidemic in Europe and the United States continued to reach new highs.
At the beginning of 2021, the world is likely to be in a state where the new crown epidemic continues to worsen. In this state, countries will inevitably adopt more stringent city closures and travel restrictions. People have reduced their travel, social interaction, tourism and other activities, which will inevitably lead to a decline in demand for clothing.
This is not good news for the clothing sales market. The inventory in early 2020 may not have time to be digested, and the inventory in 2021 will be backlogged again. Then clothing companies must have serious lack of confidence in stocking and placing orders for next year.
The operating rate of looms is high, and the phenomenon of selling goods may increase after the year
Although the overall textile market situation has been poor recently, the weaving market still maintains a high operating rate. 80% operating rate is very common, and there are also many companies that are fully operational. The reason why they are still working overtime to produce even though there are not many orders is that, on the one hand, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and most weaving factories are unwilling to reduce production, stop production and take holidays in the near future; on the other hand, the prices of raw materials after the new year are often raised. At this time, production also consumes cheap raw materials to a certain extent.
However, the entire industry is experiencing non-stop production and inventory, especially when most weaving companies have high inventories in 2020. The gray fabric market in 2021 is bound to be in dire straits. Especially in the first half of next year, the textile market is probably not optimistic. In addition, next year’s fabric market popularity and hot-selling trends are still very unclear. At this time, blind production of fabrics may be out of touch with market demand. On the contrary, it will lead to capital occupation and inventory backlog, making it difficult for enterprises to turn around and transform.
In the textile market in 2020, we have seen too many low-price sales, and even selling houses to mobilize funds. In the first half of 2021, especially if the overseas epidemic situation does not improve, these selling phenomena may still occur in large numbers. After all, there is a big difference between one year and two years of inventory backlog.
Although European and American countries are far away from us, the out-of-control epidemic overseas is closely related to the survival of our textile people closely related. Unless the epidemic is controlled, it will be difficult for the global economy to recover in a meaningful way, and consumer demand for apparel will also be affected by a weak economy. Especially as the epidemic continues to worsen and get out of control, there are still great uncertainties in the textile market next year.
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