Affected by the epidemic, the spot price of cotton fell sharply after the holiday. Zheng cotton even fell by the limit on the first day of opening, and the market was pessimistic. In the face of sudden market trends, the stock exchange has become the best choice for enterprises to effectively deal with risks. Since February 3, reserve cotton has maintained a high transaction rate. Although China Reserve Cotton Company has significantly increased the daily listing volume, it is still difficult to conceal the enthusiasm of enterprises for storage.
Before and after the epidemic, the trend of Zheng cotton futures diverged significantly. Before mid-January, the price of Zheng cotton continued to rise, reaching the highest point of 14,855 yuan/ton. The market outlook was bullish. At this time, the enthusiasm of enterprises for delivery and storage was low, and there were basically no transactions or sporadic transactions. Compared with the current market price at that time, there is indeed no advantage in entering the maximum price limit. After mid-January, the domestic epidemic situation intensified, and cotton prices fell sharply. The maximum price of reserved cotton was still close to 14,100 yuan/ton. At this time, the price of Zheng cotton was below 13,000 yuan/ton, and the CF2005 contract low even reached 12,130 yuan. Yuan/ton, although it subsequently rose sharply for three consecutive days to reach 13,100 yuan/ton, there is still a large gap from the entry price.
A person from a delivery and storage company said that delivery and storage is very convenient at present. Not only is the price right, but the delivery and storage period has also been adjusted. The delivery period of cotton traded in other warehouses after January 15th (inclusive) has been extended uniformly. , the current “arrive at the warehouse and complete the initial inspection within 45 days after the contract is signed” is temporarily adjusted to “arrive at the warehouse and complete the initial inspection within 75 days after the contract is signed.” This gives companies time to fully prepare for handover. As long as the incoming cotton reserve price fluctuates 200 yuan/ton up or down 13,800 yuan/ton, companies will choose to deposit it. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the market outlook is not optimistic for the time being. The deposit can withdraw funds and reduce later operating risks.
According to the reporter from China Cotton Network, in addition to the above reasons, some delivery companies believe that the current market sentiment is generally pessimistic, and the spot market is basically at a standstill. The development momentum of the epidemic has not weakened, and downstream companies have further prospects. Possibility of delaying the start of construction. Judging from this week alone, the delivery price advantage is obvious. As for whether to continue a large amount of delivery next week, it will be decided based on the comparison between the maximum price of the week and the current price. In addition, according to the calculation results of the highest bidding price of reserve cotton, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton fluctuates around 700 yuan/ton after the Spring Festival. Whether domestic cotton prices increase slightly or foreign cotton prices continue to fall, the price difference may exceed 800 yuan. / ton and the rotation is suspended, so we must seize the opportunity this week and actively place deposits.
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