According to feedback from cotton traders in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and other places, port cotton stocks have continued to rise since the end of January (although tariffs were cleared in late February, bonded cotton inquiries and transactions picked up significantly compared with the previous weeks, but the amount of warehousing was Still higher than the outbound volume), arrivals and warehousing are mainly 2019/20 US cotton, Indian cotton, Brazilian cotton, West African cotton and a small amount of Ukrainian cotton (as of the end of February, the bonded volume of Ukrainian cotton in China’s main ports is not low ).
Some traders said that despite the impact of the Spring Festival and the new coronavirus epidemic, foreign cotton shipments, arrivals, and deliveries have declined in the past month (especially Indian cotton due to defaults and delayed shipments) (resulting in a slightly larger decrease in warehousing volume in February/March), but due to domestic logistics being at a semi-stagnant state, cotton textile companies delaying the resumption of work and production for 15-30 days (procurement is postponed accordingly), and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar breaking 7 again, etc. It is negative, so the cotton at the port still has the characteristics of “large warehousing and slow shipment”.
Judging from the inventories and estimates of several large international cotton merchants and large and medium-sized cotton import companies, Qingdao Port’s foreign cotton inventory has exceeded the 350,000 tons mark (bonded + non-bonded) in late February. It should be It is around 370,000-380,000 tons (the industry generally believes that as of March 3, it will definitely be less than 400,000 tons), of which US cotton, Brazilian cotton, and Uzbek cotton account for the majority; while Zhangjiagang’s foreign cotton inventory is about 75,000 tons (as of March 3) (Japanese bonded + non-bonded 75,900 tons), Uzbek cotton, American cotton, Australian cotton, Brazilian cotton, and West African cotton account for a slightly higher proportion; the total foreign cotton inventory in other ports such as Tianjin, Ningbo, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai is 135,000-145,000 tons, so as of the end of February, cotton stocks in China’s major ports were approximately 37~38+7.5+13.5~14.5=580,000~600,000 tons, a significant increase from the end of January.
As the elimination of U.S. cotton import tariffs is still in progress, the main contract of Zheng cotton has once again fallen below 12,500 yuan/ton. In addition, inventory continues to rise and shipments are not smooth. Therefore, some traders report greater pressure. . </p
