Oil has become cheaper than water, and Italy has blocked freight.
Today, two major news headlines around the world have seriously affected the shipping and logistics industry. Saudi Arabia has launched a full-scale oil war! The epidemic in Italy has further erupted, and a large area of the city has been closed, and freight transportation has been suspended at the same time? !
After negotiations with Russia on the production reduction agreement broke down on Friday, Saudi Aramco immediately announced that it would start The “suicidal” oil price war is aimed directly at Russia. The discount is so large that it has hit the “largest drop in at least 20 years.” It is expected to push more Saudi oil to the global market to ensure revenue.
Veteran OPEC watcher Roger Dewan said this means prices could fall below $20 a dollar. bucket. According to preliminary estimates, once speculators unwind their long positions, Brent oil may free fall from the current US$45 to the US$20 range, or even the US$10 range.
As soon as the news came out, both US oil and Brent oil plummeted by more than 8%! The Middle East stock market collapsed today (the Middle East is closed on Friday). The Saudi stock market fell by more than 7% at the opening. The Kuwaiti stock market fell by more than 10% during the session, which directly caused the market to suspend trading. Saudi Aramco, the world’s most profitable company, fell below the issue price at the opening. It fell 8.18% today, losing about 1.2 PetroChina’s market value!
Based on the NYMEX crude oil futures price of US$41.57/barrel, the current oil price is US$0.26/L (1 barrel=158.98L), converted into RMB: 1.8 yuan/L. In other words, based on this price, the price of domestic mineral water has far exceeded the international crude oil futures price, and oil prices have once again entered an era of being cheaper than water.
With the sharp fall in international oil prices, two barrels of oil will undoubtedly bear the brunt of the A-share market, while the plastic packaging and rubber products industry chains downstream of the industry chain are expected to face cost pressures Unleash opportunities. For the shipping industry, the purchase of marine fuel accounts for the majority of shipping costs for ship owners. The sharp drop in oil prices is obviously good news for ship owners, which can effectively reduce procurement costs and thereby increase company profits. However, the continued decline in oil prices At the same time, there will also be a decline in freight rates in the shipping market. The level of freight rates will directly affect the profits of shipping companies. It remains to be seen, because the epidemic is putting the global supply chain in danger of entering a financial crisis or even a credit crisis. Demand-side recession has become a mid- to long-term trend, and prices are ultimately determined by supply and demand. While the economy is weak in 2020, the overall container ship capacity will increase significantly. Alphaliner pointed out that the active fleet will grow by more than 5% in the second half of this year, driven by the delivery of new ships and the return of 50 ships per month in the first half of the year.
But what is even more worrying is that
The domestic commodity market, especially It is the petrochemical commodity market that will suffer a bloodbath
Since crude oil is the most upstream of many industrial chains, the rise and fall of crude oil prices will greatly affect the price fluctuations of industrial products and even consumer goods. Therefore, crude oil is vividly called the “mother of inflation” and the “king of commodities”.
The most direct impact is that after the opening of trading on March 9, there is almost no suspense that the chemical products in China’s commodity futures market will meet the full limit, and even a decline in one board is not enough. Other commodities will also be affected by sentiment and open sharply lower across the board. A bloody storm will first be staged in the commodity market, especially the petrochemical commodity market.
In fact, judging from the trends of PTA and ethylene glycol last week, they are generally relatively stable. Spot prices PTA even rose slightly at one point. But the black swan superimposes the gray rhino. In the new week, under the combined influence of the plunge in crude oil and the epidemic factors, the market conditions of PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester filament may be even worse.
The textile business is really facing all kinds of uncertainties this year…</p
