Recently, crude oil prices are still rising.
It coincides with the judgment that some institutions previously predicted that “fundamentals will dominate the upward fluctuation of international crude oil prices” in June.
Recently, the impact of the global new coronavirus epidemic has tended to ease, and all parties are increasingly confident in the continued rise in international crude oil prices.
However, according to the latest data from Rystad Energy, as far as June has come, the global Oil demand will fall by 14% to 84.5 million barrels per day.
Rystad Energy predicts that global oil demand will decrease by 10.8% year-on-year in 2020 to 88.8 million barrels per day, which is a decrease of 10.7 million barrels per day. The forecast also shows that total U.S. oil demand will fall by 10% year-on-year to 18.4 million barrels per day in 2020, a decrease of 2.1 million barrels per day. In June, which has already arrived, U.S. oil demand will drop by 15.1% to 17.5 million barrels per day.
In contrast, the decline in European oil demand is even greater. Forecasts show that in June, European oil demand will fall by 19.3% to 11.4 million barrels per day. In 2020, total European oil demand will drop by 13.2% year-on-year to 12.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.8 million barrels per day.
Energy Aspects, an energy consulting company, predicts that global oil demand will reach 98.1 million barrels per day in 2021 , still below the 2019 level of 100.2 million barrels per day. Even before the end of 2022, global oil demand will not reach pre-COVID-19 levels. Russian rating agency NKR said that as anti-epidemic restrictions are relaxed, global oil demand is expected to return to pre-crisis levels by 2022.
However, due to factors such as the recovery in oil demand and the “OPEC+” production cuts, Citigroup predicts that from June to the third quarter of this year, oil supply will turn from a record-high excess to a shortage, and in the third and fourth quarters Brent oil prices will rise to US$39/barrel and US$48/barrel respectively.
UBS also said that the oil market will be in short supply in the fourth quarter of this year, and by the end of December, the price of Brent crude oil will reach 43 US dollars per barrel.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia said that with further reductions in supply, Brent crude oil prices will rise to $55/barrel by the end of next year, and will stabilize at $60/barrel thereafter. </p
