Introduction: After the Spring Festival in 2020, public health events have had a greater impact on all walks of life. The polyester staple fiber industry is also in trouble. Both the start-up and output have declined to varying degrees compared with the same period in previous years. The overseas epidemic has not yet ended. How will it develop in the second half of the year?
Polyester staple fiber in the first half of 2020 The average market price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 6,140 yuan/ton, with the highest point at 7,050 yuan/ton and the lowest point at 5,300 yuan/ton. The price amplitude is 33.01%, while the average domestic market price in the same period last year was 8,453 yuan/ton. A year-on-year decrease of 27.36%.
It can be clearly seen from the figure that the mainstream price of the polyester short-sleeve market in the first half of the year was lower than last year, and the rebound was limited. There are three main time nodes in the market, and market prices fluctuate greatly.
The first stage: January to March. The main reason: the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in China and the spread of the global epidemic. According to previous practice in the polyester staple industry, nearly 30% to 40% of the equipment will be shut down for maintenance during the Spring Festival, and most of them will resume normal production around the fifteenth day of the first lunar month. However, due to the impact of the epidemic this year, not only did the work not start as scheduled after the holiday, there are still Enterprises continue to reduce operating conditions. Terminal weaving enterprises have been slower to resume work, which has led to sluggish market demand for polyester shorts, causing prices to continue to fall. Coupled with the spread of the international epidemic in March, it has accelerated its downward trend, once falling to the lowest point of 5,300 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. .
The second stage: early April to mid-April. The main reason: encounters with masks. Starting before the Qingming Festival, benefiting from the concept of masks and the surge in demand for ES fiber of hot-air non-woven fabrics, polyester staple fiber has started a crazy rise mode. Among them, ES composite fiber is the most popular and hard to find. The alternative low-melting fiber also benefited. Therefore, the general fiber in the polyester staple market also experienced an increase of nearly 1,000 yuan driven by popular models. Some general fiber production lines were converted to produce differentiated products, and the operating rate increased significantly. However, as the craze for hot air non-woven fabrics subsides, the prices of polyester staple fiber, medium and long fiber, etc. have also fallen from high levels, and will gradually return to normal levels.
The third stage: May-June. Although there has been no outstanding performance in the past two months, with the unblocking of some parts of Europe and the gradual recovery of foreign orders, coupled with the recovery of downstream weaving operation rates, the overall market price of polyester shorts has been in a volatile and warm trend. In July, the price of polyester short-sleeved goods gradually recovered to around 6,000 yuan/ton. Although it is not as high as the same period in previous years, it can also be seen from the figure above that in June and July last year, the polyester short-sleeved market entered the off-season, and prices and demand declined. Therefore, currently The polyester short market maintains a volatile and warm trend, which is also a good performance.
The global epidemic in the second half of the year still requires continued attention. Only when the global epidemic is alleviated can foreign trade orders be driven to a qualitative increase. In terms of supply, the polyester short-sleeve market has been greatly affected by the impact of the epidemic this year. However, as the epidemic has eased, the polyester short-sleeve market has gradually returned to normal production. It is currently operating at a high load, and the units that were delayed in the first half of the year will also be put into production one after another. Supply pressure The second half of the year will not be underestimated.
From a downstream perspective, although the market demand for pure polyester yarn has picked up compared with the previous period, the overall situation has not completely improved. In addition, countries such as Brazil, Turkey, and India have recently experienced severe epidemics due to their own epidemics. The severe situation and some countries’ anti-dumping investigations on China’s polyester yarn exports caused a decline in domestic pure polyester single yarn exports in May. From this point of view, the cotton mills are under greater internal and external pressure in the second half of the year.
Taken together, the polyester staple fiber market lacks significant upward momentum in the second half of 2020, and the overall situation is volatile. </p
