Since July, the CF2009 contract, the main contract of Zheng Cotton, has been consolidating within the 12,000-12,500 yuan/ton compartment. The bulls have obvious intentions of using factors such as the stock market and weather to continue to pull up at the Wan’er mark, but the industry is still recovering slowly. State, downstream cotton yarn, gray cloth and other terminals have limited support for cotton. Coupled with the interference of the new crown epidemic and the continued tension between China and the United States, the bottom of 12,000 yuan/ton has not been effectively established despite multiple tests. The entire Zheng cotton market is still at The state of “top has a top and bottom has a bottom”. From the perspective of finance, stock and bond markets and commodities, Zheng cotton is easy to rise but difficult to fall; but in the short term, from the perspective of cotton supply and demand fundamentals, the accumulation of external uncertainty risks and the downstream order situation, cotton futures are not confident enough to rise, so they appear at 12,000 Yuan/ton is difficult to break, and the price is extremely high at 12,500 yuan/ton.
If the time point is further extended, the bottom center of gravity of Zheng cotton has continuously moved upward since June, from 11,400 yuan/ton to 11,925 yuan/ton. The CF2009 contract has steadily moved upward. It is not only confident, but also firm and soft. Economy, advance and retreat freely, Zheng Cotton has always been in the upward channel of the center of gravity, so it is a high probability event to stand firm at 12,000 yuan/ton and follow the wave towards previous highs such as 12,500 yuan/ton and 13,000 yuan/ton. The author judges that new cotton and old cotton in 2020/21 will be in line around 13,000 (3128B standard level), so you need to be cautious when chasing shorts and killing longs. Why does the author believe that cotton prices will gain momentum and fluctuate upward from August to September? The following points are summarized:
First, the central bank continues to maintain monetary easing, capital flows are sufficient, and the financial and commodity futures markets are promising. In order to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic, boost real enterprises, slow down the economic recession, and maintain employment rates, many central banks around the world have launched the “helicopter money” model without exception in 2020. The recent central bank meeting report stated that new RMB loans in the first half of 2020 were 12.09 trillion yuan, completing 60% of the full-year target;
Second, the production and sales of my country’s textile and clothing enterprises are in a difficult stage of recovery and climbing. , it takes time to exchange space. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics recently released that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in July was 51.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. As of July, the manufacturing PMI has been running above 50% for 5 consecutive months, especially in July when the index rebounded to above 51%, indicating that the economy has accelerated its recovery; China Textile Industry Federation survey data shows that in the second quarter of 2020, the textile industry prosperity index Reaching 51.0, it returns to expansionary territory. During the same period, the capacity utilization rates of the textile industry and chemical fiber industry reached 70.3% and 77.1% respectively, an increase of 3.1 and 2.7 percentage points respectively from the first quarter. Although foreign trade exports are picking up slowly, the entire industry is still struggling to rebound;
Third, the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” period for the textile and clothing industry is approaching, and the production and sales of gauze and other products are expected to start early. In the first half of 2020, affected by factors such as the epidemic, employment situation, and income decline, textile and clothing consumption has been suppressed and constrained (my country’s residents’ savings rate has rebounded significantly). However, as the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic has achieved phased results, Europe and the United States The economic recovery of various countries is accelerating and domestic sales orders are “falling” in the spring and summer of 2021. The “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” period for gauze and clothing can be expected. Growth in cotton consumption and a moderate price increase do not seem far away;
The fourth is to pay attention to August-September. Changes in the weather and epidemic situation in Xinjiang’s cotton areas may give bulls and funds opportunities to speculate. According to the forecasts of the Central Meteorological Administration and the Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory, high-temperature and dry weather will continue in various cotton regions in Xinjiang in August (high temperatures of 35-37 degrees Celsius in most areas, and the highest temperature in some areas such as the Tarim Basin, Turpan City, Hami City, etc. in southern Xinjiang can reach 40 degrees Celsius. degrees Celsius or above), it is not conducive to cotton bolls, peaches, and cotton wadding, and may even cause bolls to fall off and produce fewer peaches, which will affect cotton yield and quality. The current Xinjiang epidemic has caused a sharp decline in lint road transportation and railway shipments. Inquiries and shipments of Xinjiang cotton in mainland China’s underground warehouses are relatively active. </p
