As polyester staple fiber futures are getting closer to the market, the market’s attention to polyester staple fiber is gradually increasing. If polyester staple fiber is launched, the number of listed varieties involved in the textile industry will reach 5, and the ranking will be based on the listing time. They are cotton, PTA, cotton yarn, MEG, and polyester staple fiber. The first four products will be launched as follows.
Cotton is a fiber with a long history. Cotton yarn appeared as early as 3000 AD. Compared with natural fibers, the history of chemical fibers is relatively short. Among chemical fibers, synthetic fibers only began to develop half a century after the industrial production of cellulose fibers. Although synthetic fibers started late, they have developed rapidly. During the period from 1997 to 2018, the average annual compound growth rate of global demand for synthetic fibers can reach 4.85%, and the main fiber that drives the rapid development of synthetic fibers is polyester.
At this stage, polyester staple fiber is about to be launched, and the market is paying increasing attention to polyester staple fiber. , and because it is in the same cotton spinning industry as another futures variety, cotton, the market has also increased its correlation and arbitrage analysis between the two.
The application of cotton, polyester and viscose in the field of cotton spinning
Cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber all belong to cotton spinning As the main raw materials in the field, with the long-term development, the proportion of use of the three in the field of cotton spinning is also gradually evolving. Among them, cotton, as an agricultural product, is limited by factors such as nature and land area, and it is developing rapidly in the downstream cotton spinning field. Against the background of the epidemic, the supply of cotton is far from meeting the growing demand from downstream. Therefore, the global cotton consumption in the cotton spinning field has dropped from 66% in 2004 to 48% in 2019, while polyester staple fiber has developed rapidly. Occupying a large amount of the cotton spinning market, its consumption share increased from 28% in 2004 to 41% in 2019. And looking at the demand for cotton and polyester staple fiber in China’s cotton spinning field, the demand for cotton has dropped from 53% in 2010 to the current 42%, while the demand for polyester staple fiber once jumped to 37%.
Therefore, cotton and polyester short Fiber and viscose staple fiber are both one of the three major cotton spinning raw materials and have a common downstream situation. The three have a strong competitive relationship. If the cotton spinning industry develops rapidly, the demand for chemical fibers will continue to increase, but if the downstream With their shares relatively fixed or even shrinking, the three major cotton spinning raw materials are likely to be in a state of ebb and flow.
The price trend of cotton, polyester and viscose in the field of cotton spinning
Therefore, there is a common downstream relationship, and the price trends of the three major cotton spinning raw materials follow the same pace. relatively unified. Judging from the price trend of cotton and polyester staple fiber, in 2010, polyester staple fiber rose due to the cotton hype and a series of factors. Then the hype factors gradually broke down and cotton and polyester staple fiber fell. Both experienced a 5-year period. After falling in 2016, they all rebounded after hitting the bottom in January 2016, and then both set new lows at the end of January 2016 in March 2020.
Not only that, since 2015, the price difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber has basically been 6000- The price range of 7,000 yuan/ton is mostly in the range. Even if it is not within this price difference, the prices of polyester staple fiber and cotton will repair each other.
Viscose staple fiber ranks third among cotton spinning raw materials. Both major raw materials are now on the market. Trading, people in the viscose staple fiber industry have also begun to have expectations for the listing of viscose staple fiber. As early as Chapter 24 of “Game Principles of Viscose Staple Fiber Market” published by Ji Liuyan, the feasibility of the listing of viscose staple fiber futures was mentioned The research and discussion article mentioned the details and significance of the listing of viscose staple fiber. In addition, we can also consider the mutual substitution relationship between cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber in actual downstream production and use, as well as the arbitrage relationship resulting from the strong correlation with pulp prices. </p
