With the sharp fluctuations in downstream products, southern Xinjiang cottonseed has gradually returned to rationality: buy as you use, and prices have fallen. Compared with northern Xinjiang, southern Xinjiang oil plants are obviously more rational, more relaxed and more proactive. But market noise has reappeared. Will Shandong oil companies come to southern Xinjiang to grab cotton seeds? Will ranchers come to southern Xinjiang to grab cotton seeds? Will northern Xinjiang oil factories come to southern Xinjiang to grab cotton seeds? Will downstream products drive up cottonseed prices? In short, can Nanjiang Oil Mills rob cotton seeds in large quantities? The author’s suggestion is: stay rational, risks are gathering in cottonseed, and the most severe test for oil plants will be after the year.
Cottonseed oil is only responsible for pushing cottonseed up but does not prepare a ladder for cottonseed prices to come down
Cottonseed oil is the main driver of this round of cottonseed price increases. Cottonseed Oil spot prices have risen from 5,700 yuan/ton in late September to the current level of about 6,800 yuan/ton, and have maintained an upward attitude. Strong demand is fundamental, and the surge in external soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil is a boost. However, since December, the spot price of cottonseed oil in Xinjiang has stagnated, with mixed fluctuations, and a high degree of vigilance and restraint on the external market has been maintained. This reflects the industry’s concerns about current market prices. The market is generally worried that prices will rise rapidly and sharply in the short term. What if prices drop? Therefore, both oil plants and downstream refining companies are working hard to reduce inventories. For oil mills in southern Xinjiang, the price increase of cottonseed oil during the cottonseed market stage has only pushed up the cost of raw material procurement. It’s always cold at high places. The higher the price of cottonseed oil, the higher the cost of cottonseed. If oil mills purchase irrationally now, all risks of a correction in cottonseed oil will be borne by the oil mills. If cottonseed oil drops by 1,000 yuan/ton and adjusts from 6,800 yuan/ton to 5,800 yuan/ton, which is still the high price of cottonseed oil in recent years, cottonseed prices will fall by about 150 yuan/ton.
The charming small variety of cotton husk contains big risks
The price of cotton husk has risen from 1,000 yuan/ton at the end of September to a maximum of 1,500 yuan/ton. , is also the main driving force behind the early rise in cottonseed prices. Last week, the price of cotton husk in northern Xinjiang fell to 900 yuan/ton, and that in southern Xinjiang dropped to 950 yuan/ton. The price of cotton husk in northern and southern Xinjiang increased this week. However, as the processing volume of cotton seeds increased, the inventory of cotton husk gradually increased. Trader quilt. The market is increasingly worried about cotton shells. Because in recent years, the lowest price of cottonseed hulls has been only 300 yuan/ton, while last year the lowest price was only 550 yuan/ton. In the later period, when the stock of cottonseed is too large and oil plants start up more, cotton hulls will be a major risk. If cottonseed hulls fall by 250 yuan/ton, cottonseed prices will fall by 100 yuan/ton.
The epidemic is still the biggest “black swan” and the impact on transportation will continue to exist
The epidemic is still the biggest variable. Xinjiang is located in a remote area and its management methods are backward. , the early epidemics in Urumqi, Kashgar and Turpan brought huge difficulties to the transportation of goods in Xinjiang. The epidemic has restricted logistics and pushed up shipping costs. This year, Xinjiang’s cottonseed and cottonseed meal shipments are not flowing smoothly. One of the main reasons is the impact of the epidemic on logistics. For feed mills, if cotton meal and cotton seeds cannot be obtained stably, they will be forced to change their formulas and dare not rely on Xinjiang cotton by-products. This will further increase the pressure on Xinjiang cotton by-products. Towards the end of the year, the epidemic is showing sporadic spreads, which will be a great test for Xinjiang’s epidemic prevention and control.
The large inventory of cotton meal does not rule out the possibility of prices bottoming out again
Both the northern and southern Xinjiang, the current cotton meal inventory is at a historical high, and almost all All oil factories have large stocks of cotton meal, covering all varieties. Conservative estimates put the cotton meal inventory in northern Xinjiang at more than 50,000 tons, and in southern Xinjiang it may reach more than 100,000 tons. Judging from the current transportation and cargo volume in northern and southern Xinjiang, there is little room for improvement before the Spring Festival. The current rise in cotton meal prices in Aksu, southern Xinjiang, is more of an adjustment to the previous oversold and the current hot external market. The real test is Sinotrans. If cotton meal outside Aksu does not follow the increase, or if cotton meal shipments are not smooth after the price increase in Aksu, inventories in northern and southern Xinjiang continue to increase, and some companies will either stop production or cut meat, which will bring direct consequences to the cotton meal and cottonseed markets. impact.
In the early stage, the focus of the Xinjiang cotton meal market was Aksu. First, the logistics pressure was the greatest; second, the shipment volume was the largest; third, the inventory was the largest; fourth, the cost was the highest; and fifth, the price was the lowest. The cost is the highest and the price is the lowest. The logistics pressure is the greatest and the volume of goods is the largest. The volume of goods is the largest and the inventory is the largest. The flexibility and diversity of Aksu’s cotton secondary processing enterprises have been reflected, and they have also set an example for other regions. At present, the price in Xinjiang has only bottomed out in Aksu. Compared with Aksu, other regions have lower costs and greater pressure on cotton meal. We do not rule out the possibility that other regions will challenge the previous lows created by Aksu’s cotton prices.
The inventory of cottonseed in southern Xinjiang is too large, and the willingness of oil mills to purchase is increasingly weakening
The inventory of cottonseed in southern Xinjiang this year has become the biggest variable in the later cotton sub-market. Kashgar local The digestion of cottonseed is unfavorable, and external transportation is blocked; the procurement ratio of Aksu Oil Mill is too low, and the stock of seed cotton is huge; while Korla, as the most convenient area for external transportation, has the lowest price, which shows that external transportation is seriously hindered. It is conservatively estimated that the digestion volume of cottonseed in the three prefectures of southern Xinjiang is about 1.5 million tons, and the stock is 2.5 million tons.
The digestion capacity of oil plants is gradually shrinking. Firstly, the initial processing volume is insufficient, which affects the overall processing capacity; secondly, the risks are too great, the downstream is not smooth, and the stop and start operation and the inability to operate at full capacity will It lasts for a long time, and the processing and digestion capabilities continue to be damaged in the short term; thirdly, after May, the delinting factory�With successive shutdowns, it has become difficult to purchase light seeds, and it is impossible to guarantee the startup of large oil plants with raw seeds. Large oil plants are gradually shutting down. Only small oil plants can maintain production. The overall processing capacity of southern Xinjiang will shrink significantly.
Everyone agreed that cottonseed should not be snatched years ago. Everyone has also tasted the sweetness of being deprived of goods. However, in the face of the situation of insufficient raw materials, the urge to grab raw materials is still there. Oil plants, especially large oil plants, must have With a clear understanding and risk awareness, the benefits of cotton byproducts this year will not be too great. If you don’t grab it, there will be no risk. As long as you grab cotton seeds, there will be risks. This risk comes from two aspects. One is the risk of the aforementioned market itself; the other is the unburdened enterprises. Impact on inventory companies. All risks will be realized after the year. If you don’t have goods, you will lose money. If you don’t grab it, there will be no risk. </p
