After entering October, the entire textile market seems to have been stepped on the accelerator and started a “hurricane” mode. Domestic and foreign trade orders continue to flow. Let textile people feel the long-lost peak season.
What is the specific performance during the peak season? Faced with such an unexpected and reasonable peak season, what do textile people think?
It’s just one word, I heard it recently After the National Day holiday many times, the most intuitive feeling for textile workers is that everything seems to have started to increase in price.
From the table below, we can clearly see that after October, the prices of various raw materials have increased across the board, and the price increases of spandex and cotton yarn have even exceeded 200. Yuan / ton.
Driving by raw materials, the price of gray fabrics has also begun to rise, but except for some hot-selling In addition to varieties, the increase in woven fabrics is generally 0.1-0.2 yuan/meter, which can basically offset the increase in raw material prices.
In addition to raw materials and gray fabrics, dyeing fees are also rising, but overall the increase is not large. Some dyeing factories have not increased dyeing fees, but have increased prices. Most dyeing factories basically have prices ranging from 0.1 yuan/meter to 0.3 yuan/meter. Mr. Wang, the person in charge of a large printing and dyeing company, explained that the market has just recovered, so the focus is still on protecting customers. It is not acceptable for customers to increase too much all at once.
On the other hand, due to the recent popularity of dyeing factories, “urgent orders” that once only appeared when the market was particularly good have “reappeared” “Yes.”
Manager Xu, the person in charge of a foreign trade company, said that he has received a lot of orders recently, but when it comes to printing and dyeing, he starts to have headaches. Many dyeing factories have gone out of stock. There is no time to do it, the delivery time is now 15-30 days, and it takes 10 days to press the card, and the dyeing fee has also increased. Some orders must be expedited if they are urgent, but 0.2 yuan/meter will be added for expediting, and 0.6 yuan/meter for express delivery. Yuan/meter.
Because orders are so busy, most textile companies The National Day holiday is only within 3 days, and some companies with urgent orders have even canceled the National Day holiday. This is something the editor did not expect before the research.
Such a hot market is also reflected in macro data.
In terms of the loom operating rate, the current loom operating rate has rebounded to 80-90%, which is about 10% higher than before the National Day holiday and has basically reached Normal levels for the same period in previous years.
In terms of polyester production and sales, after the National Day holiday, Polyester The average production and sales of polyester filament in ester factories exceeded 100 for the first time this year for more than one consecutive week, and weaving companies began to focus on replenishing supplies.
In terms of polyester inventory, from China Silk Capital Network According to statistical data, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 26-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 10-14 days, FDY inventory is around 20-39 days, and DTY inventory is around 28-39 days about.
Domestic trade is developing, foreign orders are returning, and the textile market is ushering in a “highlight moment”
Textile is a very cyclical industry, and its market conditions are significantly affected by the weather.
Even in the first half of the year when the epidemic was raging, there was still a hot spring and summer fabric stocking season in early May. Recently, as the weather begins to turn colder, it is urgent to stock up on autumn and winter fabrics.
In addition, with the rise of the e-commerce economy, the concepts of “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve” have gradually become hot spots in the market, and This is also partially reflected in orders.
Mr. Zhang, the person in charge of a weaving company that produces elastic fabrics, said that since October, the factory has shipped hundreds of thousands of meters of fabric, many of which are ” Orders for Double Eleven are now getting better and better, with tens of thousands of meters shipped every day, and the products are mainly T800.
Reflow of foreign trade orders
Before the National Day holiday, market news said that since September, many export-oriented textile companies in India have been unable to guarantee normal delivery due to the epidemic, and a large number of orders have currently flowed back to China. .
CCTV News on October 14, in Business In response to relevant questions, the relevant person in charge of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it is a normal market behavior for multinational companies to adjust production orders globally and for international buyers to select suppliers based on production capacity.
In fact, not only India, but Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines have also been greatly affected by the epidemic, and some orders have also flowed from these countries to China. The return of orders is also clearly reflected in order receiving. Mr. Xu, a trader, said that compared with September, the order volume has increased a lot. Now he has 100,000 meters of cotton orders on hand, as well as 200,000 meters of recycled pongee and recycled peach skin orders, all through foreign trade. The company exports to the United States.
There are hidden dangers in the peak season, so Boss Bu needs to ensure stable operation
It is certainly worthy of joy that the first real peak season of 2020 has arrived, but for textile workers, the hidden dangers behind the hot market are worth worrying about. Be alert.
First of all, there is the issue of polarization. Currently, the hot-selling fabric varieties on the market are concentrated in stretch, imitation memory, nylon, high-F pongee and other categories that can be used for autumn and winter fabric production. They have very strong seasonality. For example, imitation silk has different autumn and winter attributes. The market for fabrics that are too thick has not improved significantly at this stage.
Secondly, there is the issue of foreign trade demand. Recently, the global COVID-19 epidemic has rebounded. The number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 8 million. The number of confirmed cases in Europe has even exceeded that in the United States. Some countries and regions have adopted strict city closure measures, which has greatly affected market demand.
Finally, there is the issue of order volume. Although the current market situation has improved greatly compared with the first half of the year, judging from the survey results, most cloth bosses said that the current number of orders has not yet returned to the same period in previous years, and most of them have returned to 70-80% of previous years. , some have recovered to about 50% of previous years. This kind of order recovery cannot fully make up for the “blood loss” caused by the epidemic in the first half of the year.
However, it is precisely because there are so many hidden dangers that most weaving companies still adopt cautious operations when the market is booming. This can be seen from the purchase of raw materials. come out.
It’s normal to go up and down, so even if it goes up now, I still feel it won’t get much better, and it’s unlikely to keep going up in the future.
Mr. Wang, the person in charge of a large-scale weaving company specializing in imitation silk, also said that we did not deliberately stock more stock. One is that we have a large inventory of gray fabrics, which takes up a lot of space. Another reason for the large amount of funds is that they are not optimistic about the market outlook. The recent crazy market is largely due to the speculation of market goods. The market comes and goes quickly. After the price of raw materials increases, it may fall again. There is no need to stock up on high-priced raw materials.
It can be seen that experiencing “magic” After 2020, textile companies began to “seek stability” in all aspects of their operations, and they also became more rational.
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